Damaging Winds in Minnesota, May 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
155 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA
WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NW/SE ORIENTATED TO SOUTHERN SASK PROVINCE.
BEST PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF FEATURE WERE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUGGESTING LOW CENTER SHOULD SLOWLY DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH RESULTANT
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SASK PROVINCE.
EXAMINATION OF KMVX RADAR TRENDS INDICATED RESIDUAL CONVECTION THAT
HAD BEEN OVER CAVALIER AND PEMBINA COUNTIES HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS
EXITED INTO MANITOBA PROVINCE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT
TO THUNDER INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY/HIGH PWATS IN PLACE OVER CWFA READY TO FUEL ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FLY IN OINTMENT IS TRIGGER MECHANISM TO
GET STORMS ORGANIZED IN NATURE. ONE OF THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS IS
LACK OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR I.E. 0-6KM LESS THAN 10 KTS. COUPLE THIS
WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NIL JET/BEST PIVA REMAINING WEST
OF CWFA POINTS TO ONLY LOW POP THREAT JUSTIFIED TONIGHT. HAVE USED
NAM SOLUTION WITH MODEL INITIALIZING BEST WITH RESPECT TO 18Z SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AS LOW AND ATTENDENT TROUGH SWING THROUGH
CWFA LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY POP THREAT INCREASES ACROSS CWFA. AT
THE TIME HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG WITH
SHIFTING EAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS REGION GETS ONTO BACKSIDE OF LOW
ON WEDNESDAY DEFORMATION ZONE INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING INITIALLY IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
THE REMAINDER OF CWFA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TIGHT NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY TODAY EXPECT MERCURY TO
DROP BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE MAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS QUITE A FEW DAYS WITH PCPN MENTIONED. PATTERN LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR PCPN SOMEWHERE...IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE RIDGE
SETS UP WITH THE WARMER 700MB TEMPS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A
CAP SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. 500MB PATTERN
LOOKS GOOD FOR RIDGE RIDERS...WITH TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY. WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO
THE KDVL REGION AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INITIALLY (SAT/
SAT NIGHT)...AND THEN SPREAD LOW CHANCES EAST ON SUN. 12Z GFS HINTS
AT A SLOW MOVING FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THRU THE FA BY 00Z MON. THIS
COULD BRING AN END TO THE PCPN CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP SOME PCPN
MENTIONED THRU MON NIGHT UNTIL SOME BETTER CONTINUITY TAKES SHAPE.
TEMPS WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A DROP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF TUE. BEST FORCING FOR TSTMS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FA. KFAR MAY SEE A CHANCE BY MID EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER
OUT OF KGFK/KBJI TONIGHT. CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR RAIN/TSTMS ON WED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

BERG/GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
603 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
603 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME.
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

TG