Damaging Wind in Kentucky, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MAJOR SEVERE EVENT ONGOING OFF TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP
TONGUE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE GULF AS WELL
AS VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW SPIRALING IN STRONG MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE.
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE WEST...HOWEVER OUR LUCK IS
STARTING TO RUN OUT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN COMING UP MORE RAPIDLY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN LONG-LIVED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TONGUE. SOME OF THESE ARE
MOVING MORE EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND WHILE HAVING
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY TRAVEL EAST...ARE STILL VERY
MUCH SEVERE IN NATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/WIND AND
EVEN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEST
INSTABILITY IS TEMPORARILY TAPPED.

COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS LATER ON TONIGHT AS
IT DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE NORTH. WIND PROFILE IS STILL GOOD...SO SOME
EMBEDDED SEVERE LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY
PLOWS THROUGH. ANY TRAINING STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
ISOLATED HYDRO PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT GET SOAKED FROM
EARLIER STORMS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...BEFORE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST SUNDAY MORNING
AND EVEN MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
WHERE DECOUPLING WILL BE MORE LIKELY.

EXTENDED...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RECOVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A WEAKER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND EXIT BY THURSDAY. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1144 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED...AND NEW GUIDANCE CAME IN
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE RAISED TEMPS TO ALLOW FOR
UPPER 70S TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO JUMPED HIGHER...INTO THE
50S...DURING THE MORNING. STILL HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY BE REALIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

350 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

88D HAS WIDELY SCT SHRA ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE BLUEGRASS AND ALONG THE TN BORDER. A FEW LTGN STRIKES IN NRN
KY...JUST EAST OF OUR NRN COUNTIES. 7Z SFC CHART HAS A WARM FNT FROM
A LOW PRESS OVER LNK...JUST SOUTH OF HUF...NORTH OF SDF/LEX/JKL...
BUT SOUTH OF CVG/HTS. BULK OF ISENTROPIC PCPN IN ERN OH TO W/VA.
WARM FNTL PCPN SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LINE FROM JUST
NORTH OF BMI/IND/LEX/IOB. IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AS IT GETS INTO THE
HILLS OF ERN KY WITH LITTLE PCPN TO MARK THE PASSAGE. A LINE OF
ENHANCED THETA-E TSRA FROM HUF TO PAH WITH NUMEROUS LTGN STRIKES TO
MARK ITS LOCATION.

MOST OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
TODAY. A CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
OPEN UP IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND IT. THIS WILL
BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE TN VLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING BUT LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER. THEN AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE NRN STREAM IN THE LOWER GT LKS AND
DROPS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY...IT WILL PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS SQUALL
LINE AHEAD BRINGING ANOTHER AND POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE ROUND OF
WEATHER TO THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 02 AND 10Z. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH A RAPID
DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT UNTIL FNTL PASSAGE TOWARDS DAWN AND THEN A
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MINIMAL DIURNAL GAINS
FROM THE SUN WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S ON SAT AFTER
MID 70S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FNT EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 FOR SUN...MID 60S ON MON...AND LOWER
70S BY WED. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL CROSS THE GT LKS
LATE WED...DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY THRU THE CWFA WED NITE/THU BUT
LITTLE PCPN AND PRACTICALLY NO DROP IN TEMPS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW TEMPS SUN MORNING AS ALL THE
MODELS ARE DROPPING THE MERCURY INTO THE LOWER 30S. IF THE COLD AIR
REALLY RUSHES IN...WE MAY SEE A DECENT FROST WITH CROPS AND GARDENS
JUST STARTING TO GROW.

1105 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006

UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND
GOT RID OF THE EVENING WORDING. THE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF
SOME COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WHICH ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER EMBEDDED IN SOME OF
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING. STARTING AT ABOUT 2 PM EDT ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ISSUE WILL BE...GETTING THE STORMS
INITIATED. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL NOT BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IF SOME CONVECTION
GETS GOING...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF UNSTABLE AIR FOR THESE STORMS TO
GROW. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE
REALLY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW TO SEE WHERE THESE STORMS
INITIATE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
245 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE LATE NIGHT STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FROST DAMAGE TO YOUNG FLOWERS AND CROPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAL