Hail in Kansas, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR IRK TO COU TO CNU. THE
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED
IN MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...GIVE OR TAKE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
FRONT...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA.
ALOFT TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED...WITH ONE OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

TO THIS POINT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN OUR FOCUS MECHANISM
WITH BROAD UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT IS ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO
CLUSTERS/BANDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTOR AND AS A RESULT...HAVE SEEN A TENDENCY FOR
REGENERATIVE/SLIGHTLY BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND
VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED FLOODING
RISK. WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C AND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE. SHEAR IS REMINISCENT OF SUMMER...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MORE LIKE SPRING. THUS PRIMARY RISK IS LARGE
HAIL...SECONDARY RISK IS LOCALIZED WIND.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. GIVEN
SEEMINGLY CHAOTIC NATURE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS...AS A FEW AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT TONIGHT...HANGING AROUND 60 NEAR
THE FRONT. A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE W/E ACROSS THE AREA
THUR AND THUR NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHER TIER OF COUNTIES...TAPERING TO LOWER CHC OVER CENTRAL MO.
TEMPS ARE ADMITTEDLY TRICKY THUR AND THUR NIGHT...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN DISTRIBUTION. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS FOR
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THUR AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE 50S THUR NIGHT.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AS SFC FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER NORTHERN ARK. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS WITH LOW END CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC OVER CENTRAL MO. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SAT THROUGH WED...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED
THEREIN. THE FIRST ISSUE IS FOR THE WEEKEND WHERE THE ECMWF HAS
BECOME RATHER PESSIMISTIC MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THE GFS ENS AND UKMET SUGGESTS LINGER RAIN CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH CLEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS ENS AND UKMET...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THESE
SOLUTIONS.

IN SPITE OF DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
CONFIDENCE IN PIN-POINTING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH LOW END CHC POPS AND A RETURN TO AVERAGE
TEMPS.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE AREA REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION. RISK OF
TSRA WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS/VIS OUTSIDE OF TS WILL REMAIN VFR...TRENDING DOWN TO
MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
132 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND TORRENTIALL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN AND
  CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE AIR HAS BECOME WARM
  AND UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT...THERE ARE NUMEROUS
  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SCATTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT
  THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

  CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
  PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS. THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
  DEVELOP. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND
  EAST WILL RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FALLING IN A
  SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A RESULT...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A FEW
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FARTHER TO
  THE NORTH SMALLER HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
  TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
  EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             REDFIELD                37.84N 94.88W
05/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ105-032115-
OZARK-
319 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAINESVILLE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF MOUNTAIN
HOME...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM IN
GAINESVILLE.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
GAINESVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             36.60N 92.43W
05/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   POST OFFICE

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ097-032130-
HOWELL-
325 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN HOWELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 SE REDFIELD           37.81N 94.84W
05/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ106-032130-
OREGON-
330 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALTON...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF THAYER...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN OREGON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ALTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHULTZ