Damaging Wind in Illinois, September 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER TODAY WILL BE AS BAD AS FRIDAY.

BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION NEARLY STATIONARY LAST FEW HOURS ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SURVIVING ON THE STRENGTH
OF A 40KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGING A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RICH
MOISTURE INTO THE LINE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN MINIMAL
THE LAST FEW HOURS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO
WORSEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER FFWS...SEE NO REASON TO MESS WITH THE FFA
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

NONE OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS A DECENT CLUE ABOUT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY...THE FINAL PIECE OF THE COMPLEX
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BOTTOMING OUT OVER UTAH. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LITTLE
CAPPING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN A FRONTAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...AND THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. NOT CERTAIN HOW THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL EVOLVE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOME AND BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK..WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND TO
OUR WEST OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.

WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...AND MENTION SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL TAPER POPS THIS EVENING FROM
CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN
TAPER THEM BACK FURTHER OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
THE 12Z NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH QPF AND FRONTAL TIMING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THAT MEANS KEEPING A SMALL POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MET MOS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND STAYED NEAR THE TIGHT CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER MET LOOKED BEST FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY.

FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS SUPPORTS THE EXISTING
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO THERE WAS NO NEED TO
MESS WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
951 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
951 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THROUGH
MIDDAY. AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE WARMS UP OVER WEST
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 60 MPH...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND 1 PM.

WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL DETERIORATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE READY TO ACTIVATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ILZ089>091-093-094-KYZ001>013-231630-
BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HARDIN IL-HICKMAN KY-JOHNSON IL-LIVINGSTON KY-
LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-POPE IL-PULASKI IL-
TRIGG KY-
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AT 1030 AM...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM JUST WEST OF METROPOLIS ILLINOIS TO NEAR BARDWELL KENTUCKY.
THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPOLIS AND PADUCAH AREAS...AND EVENTUALLY
THE MAYFIELD AREA THROUGH 1130 AM.

THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN MAY AGGRAVATE EXISTING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS.