Hail and Damaging Wind in Illinois, May 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE AND THE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE HOLD OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED
TO CWA AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S. WITH ABUNDANT
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ALL PARAMETERS
ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.

COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO I-70 BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BELIEVE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW DIGS
SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ALL MODELS
INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT THE
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR WILL FLOOD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL THE KEY TO
THIS WEEKEND (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY) WILL BE HOT AND DRY AS A STRONG
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE AS +20C 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. IN FACT...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS BEING TIED
OR BROKEN.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOW:

            ST. LOUIS   COLUMBIA    QUINCY
SATURDAY        93         92         91
SUNDAY          93         91         94

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY AND COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKER CAP. DISTURBANCES MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INTIATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN ABOVE +15C.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WK CDFNT JUST PUSHING INTO NW MO ATTM. WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACRS MO AND WRN IL HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
IS ALSO DECREASING WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND SCT TSRA HV
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HR OR SO NE OF KMKC. ANTICIPATING THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT TO DEVELOP ALG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY KMKC TO
KUIN...WITH GREATEST DEVELOPMENT BWTN 19-21Z AS INSTABILITY
MAXIMIZES AND INHIBITION IS REMOVED. SIZEABLE CLUSTER OF STG TO
SVR TSRA THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE SEWD THRU CNTRL/ERN MO
AND WRN IL FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE EXITED SE OF KSTL AREA BY 02Z WITH JUST
SCT CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE. SLOW MOVING CDFNT WL GRADUALLY PUSH THRU
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z THURS WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
110 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-
047>052-059>065-072-073-251100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-
CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-
KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
110 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WILL GRIP THE AREA
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

ILZ069-070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-251100-
CLINTON IL-IRON-MADISON-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST FRANCOIS-
STE GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON IL-
110 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WILL GRIP THE AREA
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             WARRENTON               38.82N 91.14W
05/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING