Damaging Wind in Illinois, June 17, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM...AS SEEN VIA WV LOOP AND
RADAR MOSAIC...POISED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PAH FA UNIMPEDED
TONIGHT-TOMORROW AS UPPER BRIDGE BREAKS DOWN/MOVES EAST. MOS NOW
PAINTING CATEGORICAL POPS ALL MODELS AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDS/ZONES ACCORDINGLY. SOUNDINGS REFLECT HIGH PWS IN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRO W/ PRIMARY THREAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A
LESSER HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HENCE THE GEN RISK FROM SPC.

AFTER TOMORROW THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DAMPENING LIFT OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND EVENTUAL USHERING THRU OF PCPN...WL KEEP PCPN
CHANCES LINGERING TIL THIS FEATURE IS MODELLED TO BE ENTIRELY OUT OF
FA...WHICH LOOKS LIKE WELL KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLISH CHANCE GOING
THRU MON NIGHT. BY TUE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS HELPING DRIER AIR WORK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTED TROF...SO WE
GO DRY BUT NOT REALLY COOLER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THEN ON TAP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

BY THU ANOTHER WEAK TROF DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE PRIMARY UPPER FLOW
AND HELPS TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER THU-FRI.
THE GFS WORKS IT ON THRU BY/BEFORE SAT SO WE WENT DRY AGAIN FOR DAY
7.

THE MOS IS CLOSE ENOUGH AMONGST ALL 3 MODELS GIVEN THEIR PROCLIVITY
TO GO TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE NEAR TO MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION WITH
THE EWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF. WE LIKE WARM SIDE
NOS GIVEN OUR ANTICIPATED TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS...BLENDING INTO THE
LATEST OFFERING OF THE MEX MOS AS SEEN THRU THE COLLABORATIVE
PICTURE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
451 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
451 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION. THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATION...SOME
FLOODING OF ROADS AND STREAMS MAY OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY ACCOUNTS OF FLOODING OR VERY
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.