Damaging Wind in Illinois, February 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMATTING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...MINOR WINTER EVENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8PM CST.  LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OF STL SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  STL IS ALREADY ISSUING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE PAH FA WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...SO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  AHEAD...ALONG AND RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO EXTENDED GOING WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10Z FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS HAS TRENDED JUST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO BARELY BRING QPF INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WET...WHICH WOULD MEAN AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.  WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MODELS BRING THIS OVERRUNNING
SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED
TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER MET FOR SATURDAY HIGHS AND COLDER MAV FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND CONTINUES TO BE
UNPLEASANT...WITH MULTIPLE STREAMS OF ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING
TOGETHER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 12Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS IN BRINGING A PERIOD
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN VERY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING UP AND MAY GET STUCK IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LARGE SNOW TO RAIN RATIOS...WHICH
MAY MAKE A WARNING EVENT OUT OF QUARTER INCH LIQUID QPF.  THIS MAY
OFFSET A SLIGHTLY DRIER MODEL SOLUTION.

THE MODEL DOES SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 750MB...WHICH REMAINS JUST
BELOW FREEZING.  SO WILL MENTION SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN THE
SOUTH...WITH PURE SNOW IN THE NORTH.  GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD HAVE KEPT POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE GOOD CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES THROUGH THE REGION
ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE.  KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A
BIT THROUGH TUESDAY...FACTORING IN MODEL TRENDS AND LIKELY SNOWPACK.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH HPC INDICATE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE AFTER THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM ALL COUNTIES.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM ALL COUNTIES.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM ALL COUNTIES.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM ALL COUNTIES.

&&

RST/DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
310 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORM THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR FRONT FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO JUST EAST
OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 4
AND 5 PM. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE INCREASED WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 10 PM.

A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER
40 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRS