Flooding and Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOWS LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
(ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM) EXTENDING FROM THE NWRN
GULF COAST UP THROUGH CENTRAL GA AND OUT OVER THE OCEAN OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LINGERING ACROSS GA AND IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE S THROUGH THE STATE. THE FORECAST MODELS
SHOW THIS FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL GA TODAY AND INTO S GA BY FRI
MORNING. WITH THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL HELP PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DECREES IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA.
ONCE THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO S GA A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. IN THE
MEAN TIME THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST
COAST BRINING A DRIER AIRMASS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. AT THE SAME
TIME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
PARKS ITS SELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN NORM. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG/HAZE BEING REPORTED AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BURNOFF BY 14Z...BUT MAY SEE HAZE LINGER
WITH VSBYS AROUND 5 OR 6 MILES TIL LATE MORNING. SO FAR...GENERALLY
MID-HI CLOUDS DOMINATING TAF SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPTION OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA WHERE PATCHY LIFR-IFR CIGS NOTED. AS
SURFACE FLOW BECOME MORE EASTERLY...MAY SEE SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
SPREAD WEST INTO ATL METRO AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH...BUT CURRENT PLAN IS TO INCLUDE SCT-BKN IFR CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES TIL AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON CU IN THE 4 TO 5 THSD FT RANGE WITH LAYERS
OF MID-HI CLOUDS ABOVE IT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
...EXPECT BEST COVERAGE THERE. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND
WITH VCTS NORTHERN TAF SITES AND TEMPO THUNDER CSG/MCN...GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

049
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         88  70  90  70 /  20  10  10   5
ATHENS          87  67  92  65 /  20  10  10   5
GAINESVILLE     86  68  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
ROME            93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  92  72 /  30  10  20  10
MACON           89  72  93  70 /  40  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  90  67 /  20   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    91  66  91  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
605 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
605 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL GEORGIA WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOP OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY WEDNESDAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LIFTED INDICES IN THE ZERO TO -3 RANGE AND CAPES FROM 1000 TO
1500...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO WARRENTON LINE. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
GEORGIA FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.