Flood in Florida, September 1 to 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...T.S ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MADE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA AND WILL WEAKEN
BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW LATER ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY ON. GFS SHOWS MEAN MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASING FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWATS UP TO ALMOST
2.25 INCHES AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AOB 2 INCHES LATER
MONDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS INCREASE IN POPS IS THAT A
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 25N 78W ATTM WILL MOVE WEST AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SCT CU AT BEST AND SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS WORKING WESTWARD FROM TIME TO
TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT...AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT A
LITTLE MORE NORTH TOWARDS KAPF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FAIRLY
DEEP SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY...SO EXPECT TSTMS TO FIRE
ACROSS WESTERN FL/KAPF AREA BY NOON AND MIGRATE EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...INTO THE VCTY OF EAST COAST TERMINALS BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE EAST SECTIONS AND EAST BY SUNDAY ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR A SEABREEZE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WEST
COAST. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS SO SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  74 / 50 20 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  75 / 50 20 60 30
MIAMI            92  77  89  76 / 50 20 60 30
NAPLES           90  79  89  76 / 50 40 60 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

FLZ063-066>075-021000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
607 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES INLAND...
...SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INTERIOR BY MIDDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

FLOODING: PARTS OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES REMAIN PRONE TO
FLOODING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS RECEIVED IN THOSE AREAS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

TEMPERATURES: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S COMBINED WITH HIGH
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED, HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.