Lightning Strike in Florida, July 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO MORNING UPDATES. NORTHERN
EXTENT OF A TROP WV CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
81/82W IS INTERACTING WITH SFC TROUGH OVR THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDING SW TO JUST OFF THE SE FLA CST. THIS CAUSED SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SE METRO AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BUT
HAS NOW WEAKENED TO MAINLY OFFSHORE CONVECTION. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING WAS NO DOUBT A LITTLE CONTAMINATED FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA AROUND LAUNCH TIME BUT NEVERTHELESS,
ATMOSPHERE PLENTY WET. WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FIRING UP ALONG OR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AS
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND PLENTY OF SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWEST POPS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES AND THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED SO SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE THIS. ONLY WORDING CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER MORNING POPS
TO ISOLATED BECOMING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON CURRENT CMAN OBS, MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE EASTERN METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECASTED BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE PWAT VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY OVER THE
CWA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA. SO PLAN ON KEEPING THE POPS IN THE
NUMEROUS RANGE TODAY OVER THE CWA...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS TODAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...THE PWAT WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SO STILL PLAN ON HAVING
HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA. SO THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN LIFT
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW THE AREA TO GET BACK
TO A SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS. SO THE BOATING WEATHER LOOKS GOOD OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL VALUES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

FLZ063-066>075-211600-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS BEING
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS ALL OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THIS MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

HAIL: THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME
SIZE OR SMALLER HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOW TIDE WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING MEANS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST ATLANTIC BEACHES. WEAK SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY IN
SHALLOW WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR AND EAST COAST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HAIL             MIAMI BEACH             25.81N 80.13W
07/20/2006  E0.25 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY MOTORIST ON JULIA TUTTLE
            CAUSEWAY BETWEEN MIAMI BEACH AND MIAMI.

&&

MOLLEDA