Damaging Wind in Florida, July 2, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY FOR
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY
AIR ALOFT STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...
SO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THAT
REGION.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PUSHES WEST...WITH AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS AS UPPER TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY DEEPENS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU-SUN.

SFC RIDE AXIS N OF THE AREA EARLY SINKS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO FRONT
SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE CONTINUES AS LL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER FROM SE WED TO S
THU/FRI THEN SW OVER THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SCT
DIURNAL POPS ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TEMPS HOLD CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS. CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MAINLAND AND
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH DAY.  OTHERWISE NO HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT L/L MOISTURE TO KEEP THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.  NO HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  76  91 /  20  50  20  50
FMY  75  92  75  92 /  30  60  20  50
GIF  75  91  74  92 /  10  60  20  50
SRQ  74  90  74  90 /  20  50  20  50
BKV  70  91  70  92 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  80  90  80  90 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL EXIST...AND OVER
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING COINCIDES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL
BE FREQUENT AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE STATE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FLZ051-021915-
HILLSBOROUGH-
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...DRIFTING WEST...WILL AFFECT FORT LONESOME...WIMAUMA
AND SUN CITY CENTER...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS STORM MAY
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FLZ062-065-022000-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEE AND SOUTHERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS...DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
MYERS SHORES...MORSE SHORES...TICE AND SUNCOAST ESTATES...UNTIL 400
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FLZ051-055-022000-
MANATEE-HILLSBOROUGH-
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST MANATEE AND SOUTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
PARRISH...ELLENTON...AND RUSKIN...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS