Flash Flood in Florida, December 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1105 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES
THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
JET AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME SEEN ON KMFL/KEYW 12Z RAOB DATA.
GIVEN ADVECTION OF RICH/DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM...
WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES...URBAN FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION TO THE
FLOODING THREAT...SUBSTANTIAL CURVATURE IN LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK MESOCYCLONES AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE MARINE ZONES.  ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST
PERIOD FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERING
THE SITUATION WELL AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

70/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE WX
FOR S FLA NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO S TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GOFMEX WHILE THE NAM SHOWS NOTHING OF THE KIND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GOFMEX WITH SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE DEVELOPING SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. AS THIS THEN TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA COULD BE A DECENT RAIN PRODUCER AND WE ARE IN DIRE
NEED OF THAT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL TEND TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ALL OF THIS INTERACTS OVER S FLA. THE GFS HAD BEEN
SLOWING THE SPEED OF THE LOW DOWN BUT THE 00Z RUN NOW SPEEDS IT UP
AGAIN AND BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE EXITING THE SE CST. THIS IN
TURN WILL END OUR PRECIP EARLIER SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GOFMEX AND EXTEND ACROSS FLA AS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW. AS THIS LOW THEN MOVES INTO TX
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THE MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT
BACK UP AND INCREASE OUR POPS AT THAT TIME. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AND SO WILL BE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. BOTH CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE CEILINGS COULD BE AS LOW AS 3K FEET. LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAPF WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2K
AND 3K FEET MOST OF THE PERIOD. WILL MENTION MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET THROUGH MOST OF WEEKEND
BUT MARINERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A FEW TSRA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND, SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO 6 FEET OR GREATER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  72  80  66 / 70 70 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  80  66 / 60 60 60 20
MIAMI            80  71  81  66 / 50 50 50 20
NAPLES           79  68  79  62 / 70 70 60 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GARCIA
ALL ELSE...BRABANDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1050 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

FLZ063-066>075-142345-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1043 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TODAY. RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY, AND A MODERATE
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES INTO THE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS: INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP FROM THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF STREAM WATERS TODAY.

WIND: SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUST TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.

FLOODING: THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS
THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH COUNTIES WITH
THE MOST ACTIVITY BEING ACROSS METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH. THIS
MAY CAUSE POORLY DRAINED ROADWAY TO BECOME FLOODED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PALM BEACH              26.70N 80.04W
12/14/2006  E0.00 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PALM BEACH SHERIFFS OFFICE HAS REPORTED FLOODING IN THE
            VICINITY OF OKEECHOBEE BLVD AND MILITARY TRAIL. THIS IS
            OCCURRING ALONG HAVERHIL AND MILITARY TRAIL BETWEEN
            COMMUNITY AND OKEECHOBEE BLVD.

&&

EBAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1117 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     FLOOD            NORTH LAUDERDALE        26.22N 80.23W
12/14/2006                   BROWARD            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BROWARD SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODED ROADWAY, APPROX
            6 TO 8 INCHES ON ROADWAY AT THE INTERSECTION OF KIMBERLY
            BLVD AND TAMOSHANTER... ROADWAY IS PASSIBLE, BUT SLOW

&&

EBAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1123 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
12/14/2006  E0.00 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROWARD SKYWARN SPOTTER BR398 REPORTED FLOODED ROADWAYS
            BETWEEN COMERCIAL AND ATLANTIC BLVD. PINE ISLAND ROAD WAS
            FLOODED

&&

EBAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1129 AM EST THU DEC 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     FLOOD            PALM BEACH              26.70N 80.04W
12/14/2006                   PALM BEACH         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PALM BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE REPORTED
            FLOODED ROADWAYS ALONG MILITARY TRAIL. LOCATIONS INCLUD
            45TH AND OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN ROAD AND OKEECHOBEE. THESE
            ROADWAYS ARE FLOODED

&&

EBAUGH