Hail in Florida, August 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH
PREVAILING WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OBSERVED...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
MOVES WNW ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...FIRST ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC/GULF COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HAVE GONE WITH
SCATTERED POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THIS EXPECTATION. SATURDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH...SO BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SATURDAY WILL BE INTERIOR AND THE GULF COAST.

REST OF FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS CHRIS MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS NORTHERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY....SO KEPT LIKELY POPS SE COAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND LIKELY SOUTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NEXT WEEK...PLACING THE LOCAL AREA
IN AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST...THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SOUTH FL DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS JUST A BIT FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW MEANS THAT SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY SLOW AND CHAOTIC MOVEMENT
OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. EXPECT PERIOD OF TSRA/IFR ALONG EAST COAST
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 16-19Z AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR KAPF...WITH TSRA/IFR POSSIBLY LASTING A LITTLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEAR 21Z. EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. /RM

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGE ACROSS AREA TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
CHRIS FORECAST TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
CUBA...ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC FORECAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WINDS UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  90  80 / 50 10 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  89  80 / 40 10 30 60
MIAMI            91  78  91  80 / 40 10 30 60
NAPLES           90  75  93  75 / 50 20 40 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

FLZ063-066>075-051345-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
942 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST OVER THE
EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AROUND MIDDAY, THEN MOVE TO THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND.

HAIL: THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE UNSTABLE TODAY AND THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL HAS INCREASED. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST, THIS AFTERNOON COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

FLOODING:  DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM THIS AFTERNOON, SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, FORECASTS SHOULD
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR UPDATES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS CHRIS PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO NORMAL AUGUST LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

INCREASING EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST
COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.