Winter Weather in Delaware, March 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
455 AM EST THU MAR 2 2006

.UPDATE #1 OF MANY TODAY...
PCPN HAS DEVELOPED FTHR SE AND IS MOVG IN FASTER THAN WE EXPECTED.
WE CHECKED THE AWOS OBS ON DELMARVA AND THEY ARE ALL ABOVE FREEZING.
BUT THE PINE BARRENS OF SERN NJ ARE WELL BLO FREEZING AND PCPN
ARRIVAL AROUND 7 AM WILL BE TOO SOON FOR TEMPS TO RECOVER. THUS WE
HAVE ISSUED AN ERLY MRNG WINT WX ADVY FOR SERN NEW JERSEY.

JUST CHECKED AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM PHILLY AND THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WAS SOLIDLY ABOVEW FREEZING TO 775 MBS...ITS GONNA START AS
EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE LOCAL PHL AREA.

ZONES AND WSW HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069 UNTIL 7 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAZ070-071 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ013-016>020 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ021>023-027 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEZ001 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MDZ008 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455 FROM 7 PM
THURSDAY      TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

&&

TFG

PREV AFD *********************************************************

.OVERVIEW...
IF MARCH IS KNOWN FOR ITS WILD WEATHER TDY SHLD NOT DISAPPOINT. NO
BIG CHGS IN THE OVERALL FCST AND WRNG/ADVY STRUCTURE. GFS OVERALL IS
PREFERRED BECAUSE OF ITS BETTER INIT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVR ND AND
ITS TIGHTER HOLD ON COLDER TEMPS. W/O AN APPRECIABLE ONSHR FLOW BLV
TEMPS SHLD STRUGGLE TO GET NEAR FREEZING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS AND
THE GFS IS STINGIER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS. IN A COMPRABLE SCENARIO
ON 12/9/05 THE NAM OUTSHONE THE GFS AND THE EVENT WAS MORE ICE THAN
SNOW. BOTH MDLS INIT THEIR 850 TEMPS ABT 1C TOO WARM AND A MORE
CONSERVATIVE WARMING ROUTE WOULD APPEAR MORE PRUDENT. PCPN SHLD WIND
DOWN BY THIS EVE...BUT LEFTOVER LLVL MSTR AND A NORTHERLY FLOW MIGHT
CAUSE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BEYOND THAT
UNSEASONABLY COLD WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
SWITCH ARCHAMBAULT STORM THAT THE MDLS WERE SHOWING ARND MARCH 6TH
FOR NOW APPEARS AS EITHER A MERE SHELL OF ITS FORMER SELF OR IS
FCSTD TO FORM TOO FAR OFSHR TO AFFECT US. DAYS AWAY AND IT COULD
STILL CHG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FCST CONFID IS NOT HIGH WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THIS EVENT (SNOW VS
ZR/IP). WE ARE GOING WITH THE GFS (SNOWIER) SOLN OUR NRN TIER ZONES
MAY GET MORE ZR/IP AND LESS SNOW IF THE NAM IS CORRECT. THE CUR GFS
AS AN EXAMPLE GIVES MMU ABT 4 OF SNOW WHL THE NAM HAS LESS THAN AN
INCH. FTHR TO THE SE THERE ARE ISSUES AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL THE
WARM AIR WORK ITS WAY DOWNWARD (OR WESTWARD). MDL DIAGNOSTICS ARE
POINTING TWD EITHER CNTRL OR NRN NJ AS BEING THE CRUX OF THE HVYST
PCPN AXIS IN OUR CWA AS SVRL FACTORS FAVOR THEM. ENTR RNG OF H2.5
JET IS UP N/STGST THETA E ADVT IS IN CNTRL NJ/INCRG FGEN FRCG IS IN
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE/TROWAL FORMS IN NRN NJ. ITS TOUGH TO PEG
HOW FAR WWD THE SPILLOVER EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT PA ZONES (LEHIGH
VLY & POCONOS)...BLV THAT OUR SNOW ACCUM FCSTS MAY BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE THERE. LESS SNOW UNFORTUNATELY WOULD MEAN MORE ICE FOR THE
LEHIGH VLY. IN THE RARITAN BASIN WE WILL BE LEAVING THE CUR ACCUM
FCST BECAUSE OF THE PSBLTY OF THUNDER AND THE SNOW TO FREEZING/RAIN
SLEET LINE IS GOING TO BE NEAR THEIR NRN BORDER AS PER THE GFS. ITS
TOO TIGHT ATTM TO CALL. AGAIN LESS SNOW WOULD MEAN MORE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET. IN THE NWRN PHL SUBURBS AND BERKS CTY...THE SFC TEMP
PROGS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LEAVE COLD AIR BANKED IN
MONTGOMERY/BUCKS AND NRN BERKS THRUT THE EVENT. CHESTER CTY IS A BIT
MORE PROBLEMATICAL BUT FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THEM IN THE WRNG AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO
FREEZING AND WITH THE INDIRECT INSOLATION FROM THE MARCH SUN (WHICH
IS COMPRABLE TO THE COLUMBUS DAY SUN) IT WILL HELP LESSEN THE PBLMS
ON SURFACES IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AND MAKE IT MORE OF AN
EXPOSED/SHADY SIDE/BRIDGES/OVERPASSES PROBLEM.

IN THE PHL METRO AREA INTO MONMOUTH COUNTY ITS MORE OF A POOR TIMING
ISSUE AS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DURING THE MRNG RUSH AT WHICH
TIME IT WILL STILL BE COLD ENUF FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BASED ON
THE FCST SOUNDINGS (ALSO SOME SNOW FOR MONMOUTH). THE MDLS HAVE
WARMED THE LWST LYRS IN THIS CORRIDOR AND THERE IS GREATER CONFID
THAT THE CHANGE TO RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE SGFCNT ICING OCRS. FTHR TO
THE SE, THE LATER ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABV FREEZING AND
NO PBLMS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL ADD WRN OCEAN CTY TO THE ADVY BECAUSE
OF THEIR WRN PART OF THEIR CTY. THE RANDOM ELEMENT IN ALL OF THIS IS
THE PTNL FOR THUNDER (WOULDN/T BE A STORM THIS YEAR WITHOUT
THUNDER). MATCHING ONGOING INSTAB IN THE OHIO VLY WITH WHAT IS
FORECASTED LATER TDY (SLANTWISE OR OTHERWISE) MAKES IT POSSIBLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AGAIN (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7C/KM ARND NOON AND
FCSTD TTS SIM TO THE OH VLY) ARND NOON. BECAUSE OF THIS WE WANT TO
LEAVE THOSE ACCUMS GOING IN OUR NRN ZONES AS ANY MDT/HVY SNOW
COULDN/T CARE LESS IF THE JULY SUN WAS BEHIND THE CLOUDS. MOS GUID
DATASETS MAX TEMPS LOOK TOO HIGH AND WILL GO CLSR TO SFC TEMP PROGS.
SINCE THE SFC LOW IS GOING TO BE PASSING CLOSE TO GED CONFID ABT THE
MAX TEMPS IN OUR SRN ZONES IS NOT HIGH. THE SGFCNT PCPN SHLD BE OVER
BY SUNSET...IF ANYTHING THE MDLS ARE SLGTLY FASTER WITH MOVING THE
SFC LOW AWAY.

FOR TNGT MDL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING NOTHING BUT DRY AIR ABV
700MB WHICH (TOP DOWN) PORTENDS THE PSBLTY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
DURG THE EVE. THIS IS FCSTD BY BOTH MDLS. SINCE THIS IS BASED IN
THEORY AT THIS JUNCTURE WE WILL INTRO IT INTO THE WORDING OF THE
ZONES AND SEE IF THE 12Z RUNS FOLLOW SUIT. NOT MUCH TO SAY FOR
FRI/FRI NGT AS A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRES. GUID MAX TEMPS FOR NOW HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET, FOR NOW, THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS SEEM TOO LIKELY AT
THIS POINT IN TIME. THE SYSTEM THAT EARLIER LOOKED LIKE IT MAY MOVE
TOWARD OUR AREA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP US IN THE CLEAR. HOWEVER, IT STILL IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE VORTEX POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK. THEREFORE, WE WILL
PLAY THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR PHILLY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND DELMARVA, AND
RAIN/SNOW FOR LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND NORTHWESTERN JERSEY. THIS
IS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. IF THIS TREND OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES, ALL PRECIP WILL BE REMOVED COMPLETELY.
HOWEVER, IF IT SHOWS AN INTEREST OF GOING NORTH AGAIN, WE MAY UP
PRECIP PROBABILITIES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE SOME OF THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOSE THE SYSTEM SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, THEN IT REAPPEARS. WILL THIS HAPPEN AGAIN? THAT IS A BIG
QUESTION ATTM SO WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN THIS, NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. I JUST TACKED
ON A GROUP FOR THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME TO SHOW MY FCST FOR THE
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. RECENT RADAR LOOPS AND SFC OBS SHOWING
CONVECTION WITH THE ENHANCED ECHOS VCNTY KPIT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY CHESTER COUNTY PA, BUT CHCS
FOR THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

ANY CHANGES TO THE 12Z TAFS WILL REVOLVE AROUND TWEAKS TO BEGINNING
TIME OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND CHANGES IN THE TIMING FOR
PRECIP TYPES. I MAY SHAVE BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR ICE ACROSS THE
KILG-KPNE SITES BACK A FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET, IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOW LAYER IS
INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS. AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC
WARM FRONT KILG-KMIV-KACY MAY COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH MOST OF THE CHANGE LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE 2K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST MME AND MMG GUIDANCE PRODUCTS AND MARINE DISCUSSION
SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST. SCA FLAG TO BE RAISED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WATERS AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THE WAVE HEIGHT IN THE FCST MATCH UP WELL WITH WAVEWATCH AND FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES...
PRESENT TIDAL DEPARTURES DO NOT SUPPORT THE HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES
IN THE ECS PRODUCT. SSE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO TIDAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EVENT QPFS FROM ABT .25 S TO .8 NORTH NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
PBLMS.

&&

OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/GORSE
AVIATION/MARINE...OHARA
HYDROLOGY...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EST THU MAR 2 2006

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-031200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
428 AM EST THU MAR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO WWUS41 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL AND ICING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED. NO FORMAL ACTIVATION IS
EXPECTED.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>020-PAZ070-071-031200-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
428 AM EST THU MAR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION THROUGH
NOON TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO WWUS41 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL AND ICING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED. NO FORMAL ACTIVATION IS
EXPECTED.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-020-NJZ014-021>027-031200-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-
CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
428 AM EST THU MAR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO WWUS41 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

TFG