Flash Flooding in Connecticut, June 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.NEAR TERM (REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...
AFTER A QUIET MORNING...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS POPPED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON AN EAST-WEST
AXIS RUNNING FROM NEAR CDW EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRONX AND ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF
SFC MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IDENTIFIED BY THE 12Z NAM. ALSO COULD
BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER LI SOUND AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN LI AND NY HARBOR. THE COLD FRONT STILL
APPEARS TO BE STALLED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...ALONG A LINE
THROUGH ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES INTO CENTRAL CT. WITH THE SPECIAL 18Z
OKX SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 1.8 INCHES AND RATHER WEAK FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE CURRENT E-W AXIS AND ANY
OTHER PRECIP AXES THAT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FFA REMAINS POSTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS AND ALONG FLASHY SMALL STREAMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST...BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE SLOWER NAM SOLN
RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN TOO FAST TO MOVE THE FRONT
THROUGH. THEREFORE EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH APPROACHES
LATE. FRONT SHOULD STALL AGAIN JUST OFFSHORE LONG ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WENT WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET/FWC GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
STEADY SOAKING RAIN AS VERY MOIST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS WITH NE FLOW AT THE SFC. NAM BRINGS SEVERAL
MORE UPPER IMPULSES OVERHEAD DURING SAT...WHILE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND CRAWLS VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE...REACHING ONLY THE
SRN NJ COAST BY SAT EVENING. GFS WAS MUCH FASTER IN MOVING ITS SFC
LOW TO THE NE...AND APPEARS SUSPECT ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS TRACK
RECORD WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NAM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.  HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...AND HIGH THETA-E AXIS REMAINS IN THE REGION AS WELL. THUS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND SFC/UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO ACT UPON. OBVIOUSLY THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS IN THE
FCST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FFA WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE AND UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST. APPEARS THAT FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END
BY SUNDOWN SAT AS THE HIGH PWATS/THETA-E SHIFT TO THE EAST.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN DRY FCST
FOR MON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.

WENT WITH MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN WARMER
MAV FOR SUN AS MET NUMBERS SEEMED TOO FAR BELOW CLIMO...SINCE
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON ALLOWING
THE STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE TO GO TO WORK.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GENERALLY QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD...
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LINGERING UPPER TROF WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS GFS EJECTS THE UPPER
TROF FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS A SFC LOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU THE GREAT
LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THESE PERIODS AS SOME OF THE
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND NCEP ENS MEAN DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS FROM THE OPERTNL GFS. WITH ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM TO FOCUS ON...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES FOR
THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY.
AREA TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NYC REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. OVERNIGHT A
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED CROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A STRATIFORM EVENT. IN
ADDITION WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW IFR CONDITIONS AT OR NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL FEATURE LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HANDLE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO
THE MOVEMENT OF THUS LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES DIFFERENTLY. CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE SLOWER PROGRESSION MODELS IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOWS STILL IN DOUBT...THE
WIND FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY BUT AT LEAST THE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT SIGNIFICANT. DIRECTION IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AS
THESE WAVES MOVE UP AND ACROSS THE REGION.

WNA WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING SEAS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...GUIDANCE IS STILL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO TOO HIGH SO WILL
TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT WHICH WILL PUT OFF THE ADVISORY UNTIL LATER
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP SEAS AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLAN ON EXTENDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM ONLY THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN ZONE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
ZONES.

NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT (INCLUDING WHAT FELL
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT) TO RANGE GENERALLY FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FULLY EXPECT TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
EXCEED 5 INCHES. FOR THIS REASON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK
BURSTS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...HAVE
CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY.

IN GENERAL DO NOT EXPECT PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE SMALLER STREAMS IN NE NJ MAY REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL BRIEFLY
IF THOSE BASINS ARE AFFECTED BY SOME OF THE TRAINING HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ005>012 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ002>006-011 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ067>081 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ350 FROM
         9 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ353 FROM
         3 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
&&

PUBLIC/HYDRO...CNJ
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...RS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-031000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE MAIN THREAT IS TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ALONG WITH FLOOD PRONE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE MAIN THREAT IS
TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND FLOOD PRONE SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANZ350-031000-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-338-355-031000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ353-031000-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM
SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.