Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG HAVE FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING LATER THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MCS HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE NORTHWEST
INITIALLY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SOUTHEAST. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IS STILL WITH US.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MESOCALE INFLUENCES TURN OUT. THE MAIN PLAYER
WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AND
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH TIMING
OF THIS IS IN QUESTION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND JET DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE SOME AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND IMPROVE SHEAR AND HELP IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE.
OF FIRST CONCERN IS HOW THE MCS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL UNFOLD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DO NOT LOOK FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING ELSE
IN THE CWA EARLY TODAY. THUS LOWERED POPS BELOW THRESHOLD FOR
MENTION OF PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING IN ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND HAVE SMALL POPS THERE. SLOWLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
KEEPING THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH FOR THE POSSIBILITIES OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE KANSAS MCS AFFECTING THE NORTH AND ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS MAY BE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST. WENT
WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 IN THE SOUTH TO 40 IN THE NORTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAT UP SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO NUMEROUS IN
MANY AREAS...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTH. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO HIGH ON MAXES TODAY...THEY WERE YESTERDAY...AND WENT ABOUT A
CATEGORY LOWER. THIS HEATING ALONG WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN THE AIR BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE.
THIS ALONG WITH THE IMPROVING SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS WILL HEIGHTEN
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALSO THE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL HELP IN THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT TONIGHT AS CONVECTION INCREASES AND AN
MCS OR TWO ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. NORTHERN SECTIONS APPEAR TO BE
MORE FAVORED TO GET SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS
COULD BE ALTERED DEPENDING ON HOW MESO INFLUENCES EVOLVE. THESE
COULD END UP SHIFTING THE MAIN AREA SOUTH. FOR NOW WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NORTH LOWERING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH
FOR TONIGHT BUT INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR
ALL AREAS. WAS READY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF FOR TONIGHT BUT SINCE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET HEAVY RAINS
MAY NOT BECOME DEFINED UNTIL LATER TODAY BASED ON HOW MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES TURN OUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO WILL PASS THAT ON
TO DAY SHIFT AND JUST GO WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR NOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE IN
THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WOULD EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO
DECREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY GOES ON AND MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. KEPT SMALL POPS
GOING IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON LOCATION AND TIMING...WILL LEAVE SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. DRIER AIR
SHOULD MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LEFT A DRY
AND COOLER FORECAST GOING. WILL HAVE TO BE WARY OF ANY SHORT WAVES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE
LARGE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ONE SMALL SHORT WAVE WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF TO CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. IT
WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK
END AND THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
744 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
744 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.
A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM BATESVILLE TO PERRYVILLE TO MENA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE WILL BE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY...AND IT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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