Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...THEN DIE OUT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REFIRE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
MODELS CONFLICTING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS. RIGHT NOW...AM THINKING THAT FRONT SHOULD PRETTY WELL
STALL OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO NO POPS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SET UP BY THURSDAY...SO WILL
HAVE SMALL POPS BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  96  72  95 /  20  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  98  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  99  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  96  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  97  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  97  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON0AND TONIGHT

A SYSTEM ALOFT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
LOUISIANA BORDER WILL COMBINE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS IN THE
FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN THIS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED.

TOWARD FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL RELOCATE
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A COLD FRONT RIDING THE FLOW INTO ARKANSAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.

IN THE TROPICS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS MAY
REGENERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN SO...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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