Blizzard in Alaska, February 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST FRI FEB 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. THE LOW OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA TO MOVE INTO THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN OVER THE BERING BUT TO REMAIN OVER
THE CHAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS A
BIT. THIS REBOUND IS SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS
THE BERING SUNDAY AND INTO THE GULF MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
WAVE WILL HELP PULL THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE
INTERIOR AND RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE BERING SEA. THE TWO LOWS
CONVERGE OVER THE GULF TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING AND A LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. EVERYTHING PROGRESSES
RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SURFACE...WARM FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUPPORT
ALOFT WITH THE FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO BRING BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT. OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF 56N. A FRONTAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SATURDAY
EVENING AND DEVELOP INTO A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF MONDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THESE WINDS MAINTAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS MAINTAINED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MONDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH CENTRAL SURFACE...WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF WITH SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WHICH WILL IMPACT
WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW. NEAR
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF COURSE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BY MIDNIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY AND SLIDE TO NEAR YAKUTAT
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE EASTERN BERING TO CROSS INTO THE GULF EARLY MONDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION TO BE FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS IN THE GULF...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH MONDAY. THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLAND AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODERATE NORTH
TO WEST WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND SOME GAPS. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY END OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155
MARINE...GALE 175 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 06