Blizzard in Alaska, April 7, 2006

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 AM ADT FRI APR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MAP...500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH TO
THE BROOKS RANGE SEPARATING INBOUND MUSCULAR SHORTWAVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM CANADIAN ARCTIC
SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKA CANADA BORDER TO CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. BERING SEA SHORTWAVE SPONSORING SURFACE LOW IN THE
960S MB OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN TIP...WHILE EASTERN COUNTERPART
PROVIDING ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION ABOUT SURFACE LOW OVER WHITEHORSE TO
MAINTAIN WEAK ARCTIC BOUNDARY ON NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR OVER MOST OF INTERIOR ALASKA...
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FAIRBANKS TO
EAGLE. CLOUDS NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH SOUTHERN BERING
SEA SURFACE LOW.

MODELS...AGREEING BROADLY TO MOVE BERING SEA SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST
COAST TODAY AND SMEARING IT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON
SATURDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND STALL OVER THE
PRIBILOFS ON SATURDAY...AND TIGHT GRADIENT WITH TOUGH SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS FOR WEST
COAST TODAY AND SPREAD THIS TO WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT. ALL WINDS EASING UP BY LATE SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW FILLS.

NORTH SLOPE...APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN BERING WILL
START GRINDING AGAINST RIDGE OVER PRUDHOE BAY AND THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO BOOST WIND SPEEDS STARTING TONIGHT WEST OF POINT BARROW.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NEAR CAPE LISBURNE SATURDAY SPREADING EAST TO BARROW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST PUSH ABOUT BERING SEA LOW WILL EASE SOME WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC
MARINERS...BRISK WINDS GETTING STARTED TONIGHT FROM CAPE LISBURNE
TO POINT LAY AND EXTENDING EAST TO POINT FRANKLIN ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...INCOMING BERING SEA LOW WILL BOOST WINDS FIRST THIS
MORNING OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA
AND WESTERN NORTON SOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES UP FOR GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW BEGINS FROM SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND TO EMMONAK BY NOON TODAY...AND THEN FROM NOME TO
ANVIK BY THIS EVENING. WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECT BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT WHICH IS FALLING RATHER THAN SNOW
ALREADY IN PLACE. AS SURFACE LOW STALLS OVER THE PRIBILOFS...SOME
BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT FROM BERING STRAIT
NORTH..WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND REACHING KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SURFACE LOW STALLED...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME SPOTTY AND LESS ORGANIZED ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAKE A
SLOW EXIT FROM THE SCENE THIS WEEKEND. WEST COAST MARINERS...
EXPECT BRISK WINDS STARING TODAY SOUTH OF BERING STRAIT...AND FOR
CHUKCHI SEA ONLY NORTH OF BERING STRAIT. WITH SURFACE LOW FILLING
OVER THE PRIBILOFS...WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

INTERIOR...CLEARING SKIES FOR CLOUDY SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TODAY AS
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSLATES FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ARRIVING
WEST COAST STORM. OCCLUSION ABOUT BERING SEA SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EAST TO LIE FROM KOYUK TO ANVIK LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL
OUT FROM AMBLER TO MCGRATH ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SNOW ALONG THIS
OCCLUSION AS IT CREEPS EASTWARD...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
DURING THE DAY IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY. SOME GRADUAL WARMING ON
TAP FOR THE INTERIOR IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE...PUSHING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO WEST COAST ABOUT
BERING SEA CLOSED LOW AND THEN DIGGING THIS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW FLOW TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT TO
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SNOW STATEWIDE IN GENERALLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

TS APR 06