Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. AFTN
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND
CAP INDICATED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS IS CLEARLY BEGINNING TO ERODE.
SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY...WITH JUST A FEW
APPROACHING SVR CRITERIA THUS FAR. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING
AIDED BY STILL-WARM BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH HAS HEATED YET AGAIN TO
AROUND 80 DESPITE MORE WIDESPREAD SC/ST.

WILL GO AHEAD WITH A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT NEW TORNADO WATCH 89
VALID UNTIL 02Z/8PM CST FOR MOST OF THE HUN CWFA. HOWEVER...UPDATED
MESOSCALE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MAINLY A DMG WIND/HAIL
THREAT...SINCE LLVL HELICITY IS NOT QUITE WHAT YOUD WANT TO SEE FOR
TORNADOES...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WILD
CARD FOR THIS WILL BE AN APPARENT DELAY IN BOTH ONSET AND CLEARING
INDICATED BY 12Z MODELS...SO FAR SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS.

IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE DICTATED BY RADAR AND MESO TRENDS...BUT
PRELIM NUMBERS AT THE BOTTOM ARE VERY PRELIMINARY AND REFLECT THE
DELAY TREND. FROPA SHOULD STILL OCCUR AROUND THE 06Z TIMEFRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...SO CAA WILL OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWEST VALUES N/W WHERE CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY THE
LONGEST...AND WENT WITH LOW/MID END MOS FOR FIRST GUESS LOWS. WILL
MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 PM...BUT WILL LIKELY LET IT
EXPIRE AT THAT TIME.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING FOR COOLER WX OVERALL
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TRENDED COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEN WARMER WEDNESDAY AS WEAK WAA STARTS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PD...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT EWD TOWARDS
THE TENN VALLEY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...MORE
PROGRESSIVE/WETTER GFS OR THE DRIER NAM...LT RAIN MAY BEGIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS SOON AS LATE WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...TEND TO BELIEVE THE NAM HERE...BUT WONT GO
COMPLETELY DRY WED NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT AT LT
RAIN INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
SOMEWHAT. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGEST THAT BEST RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE DIVERTED ELSEWHERE SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY MID-CHC POPS.

UNSETTLED PD APPEARS TO SET UP BY THE WKND AS WE SETTLE BACK INTO A
TROF W/RIDGE E REGIME...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES SETTING UP AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO THIS...AS
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERNS ISNT BAD BUT DETAILS REMAIN
IFFY. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW-END CHC POPS NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER LOW. TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PD SHOULD BE AROUND OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...EXISTING EXTENDED FCST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD
AND NEEDED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  57  33  63 /  80   0   0   0
SHOALS        42  58  33  64 /  60   0   0   0
CULLMAN       43  57  34  63 /  80   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  56  31  62 /  80   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    46  57  30  62 /  90   0   0   0
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     AND MORGAN.

TN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE.
&&

BCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-140300-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1226 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-
65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM...AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 6 AND
10 PM.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH WINDS AROUND 60
MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...ENDING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEBER/KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1222 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-142200-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1222 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.  THESE STORMS WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE
65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...AND AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.

CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT WILL
ENABLE A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.

THOSE SCHOOLS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS PLANNING SPORTING EVENTS...OR
OTHERS PERFORMING OUTDOOR FUNCTIONS SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
PLAN ACCORDINGLY IN CASE SAFE SHELTER IS REQUIRED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE HUNTSVILLE WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
444 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

ALZ008>010-140100-
DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-
444 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...

SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD...PROBABLY REACHING NORTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 6
AND 9 PM CST.

THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
ALREADY...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS OF AROUND 60
MPH...AND HAIL LARGER THAN PENNY SIZE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE HUNTSVILLE WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

AK/BCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
504 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

ALZ016-132330-
CULLMAN-
504 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CST...

AT 503 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARBON HILL...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
WINFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE STORM WILL EACH SOUTHWEST
CULLMAN COUNTY AROUND 525 PM CST.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WILBURN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SCHAUB