Hail in Alabama, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED GRAMMAR MISTAKE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH TORNADOES LIKELY TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS...NORTH OF A REFORM TO ONEONTA LINE...
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.  A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WILL MOVE INTO MARION
COUNTY BY 845 PM CDT.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...EVEN SOUTH OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA...IS POSSIBLE AFTER 11 PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STILL CONCERNED WITH SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

AT 830 PM CST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ARE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC...STRETCHED NORTH OF A GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI TO HUNTSVILLE LINE.  THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE
SAME AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR...BUT HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 TO -5...BUT THE AIR
WAS MORE STABLE THAN EARLIER.  SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED
BETWEEN 500 J/KG TO 1200 J/KG IN THIS AREA.

MARION...LAMAR...AND WINSTON COUNTIES HAVE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS THREAT WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS
REACHING A MILLPORT TO JASPER LINE BY 11 PM CDT.  THE TUSCALOOSA AND
BIRMINGHAM AREAS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
PROBABLY MIDNIGHT CDT.

EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA HAVE SHOWN
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...INTENSIFICATION DEFINITELY REMAINS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...NEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.  THINK THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND AND MOVE EAST...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A SQUALL LINE.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO WEST ALABAMA AFTER 11 PM CDT...THEN QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR BY 6 OR 7 AM CDT.  DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS LINE...THOUGH ADDITIONAL TORNADOES AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A SELMA TO ANNISTON
LINE.  A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL AREAS UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY.

&&

MBS/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
534 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-080300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
534 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...

AT THIS TIME A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE...TO TUSCALOOSA...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO GADSDEN.
IN ADDITION TO THESE CITIES...OTHER CITIES IN THIS HIGH RISK AREA
INCLUDE CARROLLTON...FAYETTE...WINFIELD...HAMILTON...JASPER...
ONEONTA...AND SPRINGVILLE. IN THIS AREA SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM IN THE LAMAR...MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES AND THEN MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 20/59 CORRIDOR
BY 10 PM.  SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.  THIS AREA IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADOES.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LINDEN...TO CLANTON...
TO LINEVILLE. SOME ADDITIONAL CITIES IN THIS MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDE LIVINGSTON...DEMOPOLIS...BRENT...CALERA...EUTAW...
ALABASTER...ANNISTON...SYLACAUGA...AND TALLADEGA.  SUPERCELLS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND MOVE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IMPACT
WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MONTGOMERY...SELMA...ALEXANDER
CITY...AUBURN...UNION SPRINGS AND TROY ARE ALL INCLUDED IN THIS
SLIGHT RISK AREA.  AS FOR TIMING IS THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA...IMPACT
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WARM MOIST AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESULTING IN AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE STORMS. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WOULD POSE A GREATER
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO FURTHER STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT AND SPECIFICALLY THE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-080000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
314 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  WARM MOIST
AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESULTING IN AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE STORMS. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WOULD POSE A GREATER
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE...TO TUSCALOOSA...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO GADSDEN.
IN ADDITION TO THESE CITIES...OTHER CITIES IN THIS HIGH RISK AREA
INCLUDE CARROLLTON...FAYETTE...WINFIELD...HAMILTON...JASPER...
ONEONTA...AND SPRINGVILLE. IN THIS AREA SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM IN THE LAMAR...MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES AND THEN MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 20/59 CORRIDOR
AROUND BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.  SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  THIS AREA IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LINDEN...TO CLANTON...
TO LINEVILLE. SOME ADDITIONAL CITIES IN THIS MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDE LIVINGSTON...DEMOPOLIS...BRENT...CALERA...EUTAW...
ALABASTER...ANNISTON...SYLACAUGA...AND TALLADEGA.  SUPERCELLS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND MOVE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IMPACT
WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL LIKELY BEGIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MONTGOMERY...SELMA...ALEXANDER
CITY...AUBURN...UNION SPRINGS AND TROY ARE ALL INCLUDED IN THIS
SLIGHT RISK AREA.  AS FOR TIMING IS THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA...IMPACT
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 9 PM. SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT AND SPECIFICALLY THE ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-080300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  WARM MOIST
AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESULTING IN AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE STORMS. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WOULD POSE A GREATER
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NWS BIRMINGHAM WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR
COUNTY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS ON
THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT AND SPECIFICALLY FOR
THE LATEST WATCHES OR WARNINGS.