Funnel Clouds in Wisconsin, May 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SUN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. 18Z
LAPS SURFACE BASED CAPE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 750 J/KG FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR ALONG A WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY.

12Z 05MAY29 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 42 HOURS
THEN BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH TIMING AND POSITION OF
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS A LITTLE FASTER PUSHING
SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS THE NAM. HAVE USED A BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW IN THESE OUTER PERIODS. OVERALL PATTERN OF ELONGATED
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN
FOR MIDWEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCES TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. NCEP 5KM WRF MODEL SHOWS AREA OF CONVECTION QUITE WELL
ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY...AND PUSHES IT SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THUS
INSTABILITY EXPECT IT TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT. WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE OPTED TO ADD SOME VALLEY
FOG INTO THE DATABASE.

MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THUS EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER. INSTABILITIES TO BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS ALREADY WELL IN HAND
WITH CHANCE POPS. UPPER LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDING IN MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD BE
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. WENT WITH THE COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT BASED ON LAST SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE VALUES
LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OF WEST COAST TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE. RIDGING TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WAVES
OF ENERGY AROUND WESTERN TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH SYSTEM REMAINING WEST...BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THURSDAY. THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. LOOKS LIKE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIAPITION CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS
MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

RABERDING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-301100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-
LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED
BECOME SEVERE.

ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...
AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A THREAT OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RRS