Hail in Wisconsin, June 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
A TROF IN THE W AND A RIDGE IN THE E. THE WRN TROF WL TEND TO FILL A
BIT...BUT RIDGE IN THE E WL STRENGTHEN WITH VERY HIGH HEIGHTS EXPECTED
OVER THE MID-ATL AND SERN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP A
FRONTAL ZONE NR THE FCST AREA. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR S OF THE FRONT WL
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SHRTWVS WORK NEWD
OUT OF THE WRN TROF. DAILY TEMPS WL DEPEND ON THE EXACT POSN OF THE
FRONT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
SWLY UPR FLOW KEEPS MT AIR MASS CLOSE TO/ACRS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. FRONT NOW RIGHT ACRS THE FCST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS THE FCST AREA STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH DWPTS
ARND 60. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING IN AREA OF ISENT LIFT AND
MID-LVL INSTABILITY FM E-C WI EWD. WL CARRY ISOLD TSRA THIS MORNING ACRS
ABOUT THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT WL HAPPEN TO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WORKING EWD
ACRS THE DAKOTAS. WITH FRONT ACRS THE AREA...SUCH SYSTEMS WL SOMETIMES
COME RACING ESEWD DURING THE DAY. THINK LIMITING FACTOR THIS TIME WL BE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATED DRIER AIR IN THE 900-850
MB LAYER LINGERING OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...SO
DWPTS LIKELY WON/T JUMP UP WITH MIXING. THAT FIT WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS THAT
SHOWED HIGH PWATS ONLY AS CLOSE AS SGF. THINK THAT COMBINED WITH
SHARPENING SHRTWV RIDGING WL CAUSE THE COMPLEX TO CONT TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. MAINLY CI ACRS IA...AND THAT SHOULD THIN AS IT MOVES E. BEST
GUESS IS THAT THERE WL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING INTO
MORE SLY WINDS AT 850 MB...AND THAT WL SHOVE THE FRONT NWD SOME DURING
THE DAY. UPPED MAX TEMPS FOR TDA...ESP ACRS THE S/SW PART OF THE FCST
AREA. REMNANTS OF THE DAKOTA COMPLEX COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY REACH THE
AREA THIS AFTN AS INSOLATION WL ALLOW THE ATM TO DESTABILIZE. EVEN IF
FOR CI REMAINS ACRS THE AREA...THE ATM S OF THE AREA WL LIKELY GET MORE
SUN WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR THEN ADVECTING NWD ON SLY WINDS. CARRIED CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTN...WITH THE GREATEST CHC ACRS THE W.

TOOK POPS FOR TNGT UP TO LIKELY. EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE ACRS THE
AREA BY THEN. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN MN/THE NRN PLAINS LATER TDA...AND
THEN HEAD EWD AS THE LLJ VEERS INTO THE AREA TNGT. SVR THREAT WL EXIST
FROM EITHER A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE NRN PLAINS COMPLEX OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN...AND/OR FROM A COMPLEX COMING ACRS THE AREA TNGT. MAIN THREAT
WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPS AND PCPN CHC AND SVR RISK FOR WED TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. MODELS ALL
TREND TOWARD LIFTING THE FRONT N OF THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY ACRS THE RGN. GUID MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AOA THOSE FOR TDA. HOWEVER...
A LARGE TSTM COMPLEX COMING ACRS THE AREA TNGT COULD JUST SHOVE THE
FRONT S AND LEAD TO COOLER WX. NUDGED TEMPS UP A BIT FM PREV FCST...BUT
HELD BACK SOME BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL POSN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
TO BE VERY ACTIVE. THE NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL DIFFER ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE
IT SEEMS TO BE BEST TO PUT A CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS EACH MODEL
HAS PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT IN EACH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AND -2 TO -4 LI/S THERE WILL BE THUNDER EACH OF THESE DAYS
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ITS PLACEMENT WILL BE A
BIG FACTOR ON THE LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE AS A NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WILL
MEAN MUCH LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF
THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL NOT TWEEK TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SKOWRONSKI/KURIMSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-081100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SURGE BACK TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY RISK IS OF DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD START DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-081100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SURGE BACK TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY RISK IS OF DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD START DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SKOWRONSKI/KURIMSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-072100-
MENOMINEE-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-
KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN
BAY...ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 425 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MARATHON...
SHAWANO...
SHAWANO...
WOOD...
PORTAGE...
WAUPACA...
OUTAGAMIE...
BROWN...
KEWAUNEE...
WAUSHARA...
WINNEBAGO...
CALUMET...
MANITOWOC...

KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY