Hail in Wisconsin, June 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE PCPN CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAIN.

GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THEN MOVING THROUGH THE NOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. A WEST TO EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT...FROM A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...HOLDS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BISECTING WI. THEN...BY WED NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MOVE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE SMALLER SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT GENERALLY
CLOSE...EVEN IN THE QPF...WITH THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER...AFTER 00Z
THU...THE NAM WANTS TO SHIFT THAT SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...AND
THEREFORE THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN CHANCES. A STRONGER SFC LOW JUST
NORTH OF ND IN THE NAM MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH DIFFERENCE.
BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITHIN THEMSELVES CONCERNING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE UKMET HAS A
SIMILAR STRENGTH AND POSITIONING TO THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
ND...BUT ITS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AS IS ITS PCPN.
RATHER MURKY...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...FEEL THE NAM IS A BIT FAST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT
THROUGH...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS/UKMET POSITIONING FOR NOW.

SO...A RATHER ACTIVE BUT MESSY WEATHER PATTERN TO DEAL WITH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A LOT OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FEATURES COMING INTO
PLAY. ONGOING PCPN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING FUELED BY THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND STRONG 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TRACK THIS COMPLEX EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD SLIDE THE PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SBCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 3000-4000 J/KG...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL AID THE CONVECTION EITHER CONTINUING
OR IN INITIATION MORE AS IT APPROACHES. AN MCV GENERATED FROM THIS
COMPLEX WILL ALSO BE A BIG FACTOR IN FURTHERING THE CONVECTIVE
POSSIBILITIES...AS IT SPINS ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LITTLE
CIN INDICATED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. NO DISCERNIBLE KICKER FOR
INITIATION INDICATED VIA THE NAM OR GFS...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF
AROUND 90 ARE PROGGED VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED. SO SOME SPONTANEOUS CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND ANY WEAK BOUNDARY WOULD CERTAINLY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. SO...FEEL THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HELP SPAWN ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
THAT...NOSING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN MN BY 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
FURTHER...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305:315 K SURFACES WILL AID
THE PCPN PRODUCTION. SFC PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 INCH
RANGE IN THIS AREA...POINTING TO SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES. THE
EXPECTED WEST-EAST MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD
FURTHER SUPPORT THIS. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON TO WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SLATED
TO SLIP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BECOMING THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR FURTHER CONVECTION. AGAIN...INSTABILITY IS STRONG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THE BEST WIND SHEAR WILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL A GOOD FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY...SO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

THURSDAY? MUCH OF THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO WAVER NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN ENHANCE THE PCPN CHANCES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A GOOD SHOT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AS TO WHEN AND WHERE...THE MESSY WEATHER PATTERN DOESN/T LEND TO
PINPOINTING PLACEMENT AND TIMING. HOWEVER...FEEL THE STORMS MOVING
INTO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ENHANCE THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. OTHER POINTS OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH
THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MN TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ON WED.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER RISK...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS IS A CONCERN. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE TONIGHT...AS
THE WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG LIFT INTO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO...COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
ITS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...WHICH
WOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IF THIS HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO DEVELOPS. STILL...ITS SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF AND PAID
ATTENTION TO. IN ADDITION...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...SO HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN A NUTSHELL...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO DEAL WITH...WITH
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EVERYDAY. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE/WHEN AND HOW
MUCH WILL FALL IS HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT
FEEL THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND SFC BOUNDARIES...BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE SFC FRONT WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS A RESULT...HAVING NO IMPETUS TO PUSH EAST...AND ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION. EXTENDED MODELS FINALLY NUDGE THE FRONT
EAST AND WEST OF THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH DRIVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. THE EXTENDED GFS IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE DGEX. DON/T FAVOR ONE
SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME...BUT BOTH WOULD BRING MORE
PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY REGARDLESS. OVERALL...A WET AND ACTIVE
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-081100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

LATER TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-FIRE ALONG AN EAST-WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAKER...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...STRONG
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS REPEATED
RAINS FALL ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RABERDING/DAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
915 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     HAIL             3 N ROCHESTER           44.06N 92.48W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES AT HWY 52
            AND 55TH ST

0905 AM     HAIL             2 N ROCHESTER           44.04N 92.48W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0904 AM     HAIL             3 NW ROCHESTER          44.04N 92.52W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0906 AM     HAIL             4 SSE ORONOCO           44.11N 92.51W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
932 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     HAIL             1 N ROCHESTER AIRPORT   43.92N 92.50W
06/07/2005  0.50 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0932 AM     HAIL             2 W OSTRANDER           43.61N 92.47W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        MOWER              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     HAIL             MAZEPPA                 44.27N 92.54W
06/07/2005  0.50 INCH        WABASHA            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MW