Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, August 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

DATA ANALYSIS AT 2 PM HAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN U.P.
INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED VICINITY KFSD. ELEVATED CONVECTION
TAKING PLACE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. LAPS
INDICATING MLCAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...AND AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO...ENVIRONMENT IS
PRIMED FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON.

12Z 09AUG05 GFS AND NAM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT AND LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS MLCAPES HOVER IN THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE THROUGH 03Z. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AND
SEVERE THREAT. APPEARS MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND
11 PM WITH LARGE HAIL AND BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA
BY 12Z WED.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL COME ALONG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WESTERLIES ALOFT USHER IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. NAM INDICATING MODEST AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 310K LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. WILL
INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE POP WED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THREAT.

NEXT IN WHAT SEEMS TO BE A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC RIBBON ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COMES ALONG BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE INTENSIFIES ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. CHANCE OF SHRA/TS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE
GRID DATABASE...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING OMEGA BLOCK
ALONG WEST COAST OF CANADA THROUGH ALASKA. THIS IN TURN KEEPS
NEGATIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN TIER
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHERN IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR A
SUSTAINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED...APPEARS THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN PLACE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-101100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1135 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR IT. HOW
STORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THEIR OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA...WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...BUT EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR LINES WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THEY MOVE EAST.

IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS...EXPECTED TIMING IS ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 PM
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WITH 8 TO 11 PM IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN BEFORE EVENING TIME GIVEN THE RADAR
TRENDS FROM NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

IN ADDITION...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK WITH IT. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
HOWEVER.  THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
IF ANY OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THROUGH MID EVENING
IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE MARGINAL BUT MONITORING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO DETERMINE IF STORMS REMAIN OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY
EVOLVE.

A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS STORMS MOVE INTO YOUR AREA. IF FULL SCALE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT NEEDED...OBSERVED WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD STILL BE APPRECIATED
FROM YOUR COMMUNITY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
201 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041-042-100200-
BUFFALO-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-MOWER-
OLMSTED-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-WABASHA-WINONA

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
707 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

DODGE                 FILLMORE              HOUSTON
MOWER                 OLMSTED               WABASHA
WINONA

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CLARK

IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

TAYLOR

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

BUFFALO               JACKSON               LA CROSSE
MONROE                TREMPEALEAU

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...CALEDONIA...DODGE CENTER...
FRANKLIN...GLENDALE...INDEPENDENCE...LA CROSSE...MEDFORD...
NEILLSVILLE...ONALASKA...ROCHESTER...RUSHFORD...
WABASHA AND WINONA.

SHEA