Damaging Wind in Wisconsin, August 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY IS THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY TODAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL. TODAY WILL NOT BE AS HOT AND HUMID AS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OFTHE WEEK. ETA MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK BEST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS ON
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE WEEKEND DRY THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM OUT IN THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND IS VASTLY DIFFERENT. THE GFS
HAS A MUCH SLOWER SYSTEM THAT WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
20 CELSIUS RANGE. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF TAKE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CWA ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. GIVEN THE
MORE CONSISTANT AND UNIFIED APPROACH WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODELS AND LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
OUT OF THE 90S AS THE GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
145 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
145 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 600 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-041100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
145 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 600 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

SKOWRONSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY