Hail in Utah, August 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
140 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...WHILE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NV WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS/SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND PARENT LOW. INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA HAS LIFTED NORTH ALONG UT/ID BORDER WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UT. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN NV...AND HAS BEEN INDUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FED IN PART BY AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN NV INTO FAR SW UT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS WESTERN UT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL UT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS OVERSPREADING SOUTHWEST UT AT THIS
TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND IS
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
EXPECT NV CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80.

AS NV SHORTWAVE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN UT EFFECTIVELY SWEEPING MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA...WHILE FURTHER NORTH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN UT.  AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER NV THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS UT. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
90S BY SUNDAY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.HYDRO...PLENTY OF FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SO ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THEY
SHOULD KEEP MOVING. EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN UT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL
NV MAY IMPACT KSLC AFTER 22Z. HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

SEAMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
315 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005

UPDATED AND CORRECTED DATE REFERENCE

UTZ003>006-008>021-171200-
CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
315 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE A DRYING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

UTZ001-002-007-WYZ021-171200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
315 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE A DRYING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.