Hail in Texas, May 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SRN NM/SRN TX WHERE IT IS NOW
QUASI-STATIONARY. COOL...NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE
FRONT HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS AFTN.

A SEEMINGLY COMPLICATED UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN PAC/WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WITH SEVERAL SHTWV TROFS INDICATED...ONE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS BAJA/WESTERN MX...ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE NEAR LOS
ANGELES...AND A THIRD APPROACHING THE OREGON/WASH COAST. THESE 3
SYSTEMS TOO FAR AWAY TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...SOME ENERGY CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN
AZ/WESTERN NM. THIS AREA SHOULD BE ROTATING UP TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.

WILL EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM THIS EVE...SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
CAN THE ACTIVITY GO BEFORE IT SUCCUMBS TO THE COOL...STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SPLNS. WITH UPPER LIFT OFF TO THE N-NW...DO NOT
BELIEVE THE ATMOS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS
TONIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS.
SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS 850 WINDS
PROGGED TO COME AROUND TO THE SE.

SHWTV IN NW FLOW WITH BETTER UPWARD MOTION SHOULD COME ACROSS REGION
ON FRI...HOWEVER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING
FACTOR AS ATMOS TO REMAIN VERY MOST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AFTN HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME TSTMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. HOWEVER...AS
THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW...TSTM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE LOCAL STABILITY. IF WE DO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF CLEARING DURING FRI MORN HRS...WE WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND TSTM DVLPMNT
LOCALLY...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS REMOTE ATTM. SFC WINDS SHOULD COME
AROUND TO THE SE DURING THE DAY AND AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN DAYS 4-7. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF DEPICT VARYING
SOLUTIONS...WITH ONLY THE UKMET SHOWING ANYTHING CLOSE TO RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE LET THE FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A STRONG CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY 12Z SUNDAY...BEFORE SLOSHING
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS MAY BE
THE CASE..THE 12Z INITIALIZATION DOES SHOW A SHARP TROUGH NEAR 136
DEGREES WEST AND MATCHES THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY QUITE WELL...BUT NO
OTHER MODEL OR THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION YET. WILL
OPT FOR CONTINUITY AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LATE IN
THE EXTENDED.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT ACTIVE...WITH CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL
THE WAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT UNTIL
MONDAY IN THE FACT THAT EACH ONE SUGGESTS SCATTERED CONVECTION. EACH
MODEL DIFFERS WITH THE DETAILS WITH  THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL BE COOL AND WET.
ALL THREE DAYS OF THE LONG WEEKEND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS...SO PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  75  55  78 /  40  40  40  30
TULIA         56  75  55  78 /  40  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     56  76  55  78 /  30  40  40  30
LEVELLAND     56  76  56  78 /  30  40  40  30
LUBBOCK       58  76  58  77 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    59  77  57  77 /  20  40  40  30
CHILDRESS     58  76  57  79 /  30  40  40  30
SPUR          59  76  59  77 /  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     62  78  61  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

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