Hail in Texas, March 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 AM CST MON MAR 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW END SEVERE STORMS.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TRENDING OUT FOG THIS
MORNING...SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...POPS TUE NIGHT/WED...THEN
TEMPS THU-SUN. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT.
PREFER TO STICK NEAR GFS SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST...OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS FOR TEMPS.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE DENSE AT LOCATIONS NOT RECEIVING
RAIN...BUT HAS IMPROVED SOME OVER THE FAR WEST AND FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO...AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE DENSE FOG BY 8 AM...AND ALL FOG BY 10 AM.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INTERESTING AS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S...PROVIDING AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-200 J/KG...30 M/S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...WET BULB
ZERO OF 9.3 KFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT MIDDAY...AND PUSH
THROUGH TO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST...BASICALLY EAST OF I-35 FROM
GEORGETOWN TO SAN ANTONIO...AND NORTH OF I-10 FROM SAN ANTONIO TO
SCHULENBERG. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL GREATER THAN GOLFBALL-
SIZE WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND STRONG LAPSE RATES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT GULF RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS ARE
STRONGER...THE MOIST AIR IN PLACE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY 20-30
POPS AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

AFTER THAT...TEXAS WILL FINALLY GET A LONG-AWAITED SPAN OF DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THU-SUN IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  52  69  49 /  70   0   0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  45  68  45 /  70   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  49  72  48 /  30   0   0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  51  69  48 /  50   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...
      BURNET...COMAL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...
      LLANO...MEDINA...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON.

&&

26/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST MON MAR 7 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081200-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
539 AM CST MON MAR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GEORGETOWN TO SAN ANTONIO TO CUERO. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO COTULLA LINE THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...OVER EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.