Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 19 to 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
215 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN EWX
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWING WEAK ECHOES OVER BROS AREA
MOVING N. AM EXPECTING TSRAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E TO
NE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AREA WILL ALSO BE IN THE FAVORABLE LFQ OF THE JET AS IT
NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/ENHANCING LIFT.
THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A CAPPED BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
CAP SHOULD ERODE WITH MAX HEATING. CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEARING THE
FORECASTED MAX INSPITE OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. MSAS ANALYSIS TRENDS SHOWING INCREASING THETA-E
RIDGING...SURFACE LIS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS S TX.
SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FEEL
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE VCT AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE...WITH LOWER POPS S AND W. STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER ANY GIVEN AREA...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXITS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDENCE/DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG
FORMATION. AM EXPECTING BRIEF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES TOWARD
SUNRISE. RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY LOOK SLIM...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC FOR THE VCT
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRAS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A
LESSER EXENT CRP. TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THUS IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 09Z TO AROUND 13Z...MAINLY FOR
ALI AND VCT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS AT CRP AND LRD.

&&

.MARINE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THEN EXIT THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE OUT OF THE S TO SE...EXCEPT GUSTY
AND VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW WL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PD.  THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL
BECOME A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE
MAIN STORM TRACK WL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN WL BE A CAPPED AIRMASS AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE.  NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND SO HAVE WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW.  OVERALL...
THE TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHERE NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND A WK COLD FNT WL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL BE RELATIVELY WK COMPARED TO NORMAL LATE MARCH
CONDITIONS.  SCEC CONDITIONS WL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI  63 82 63 86 59 / 30 10 00 05 00
VICTORIA        60 80 61 82 55 / 50 20 00 10 05
LAREDO          62 88 64 91 59 / 10 00 00 00 00
ALICE           62 85 61 89 57 / 30 10 00 00 00
ROCKPORT        64 76 64 79 61 / 30 10 00 05 05
COTULLA         60 86 59 89 53 / 10 10 00 00 00

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
80/MB...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-200000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
529 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE
COASTAL BEND.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 37.  THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

94/87

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

TXZ229>234-239>247-200400-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
1252 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT SOUTH TEXAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED
1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION AND BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND EVEN TORNADOES. IF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND LAY DOWN ON
THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE GROUND...
PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN SEVERE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

TXZ231>233-243-244-246-200130-
BEE-GOLIAD-LIVE OAK-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
629 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING BEE...GOLIAD...LIVE
OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BEEVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULOSO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEEVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BEE...LIVE OAK...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...SOUTHERN GOLIAD
AND WESTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
EDROY...ROBSTOWN...TYNAN...TULOSO...ODEM...CORPUS
CHRISTI...SKIDMORE...BEEVILLE...SINTON AND FLOUR BLUFF...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TE