Damaging Winds in Texas, February 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
822 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THOUGH IT IS WEAKENING...IT IS MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IT WAS TOUGH DETERMINING HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE
THE PRECIP BUT LEFT IT MAINLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES TURNING TO
VIRGA AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO IRON OUT SPECIFICS AS THE NIGHT
CONINTUES. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND HAVE ELIMINATED POPS AT THAT TIME.

HENNIG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005/

DISCUSSION...
RUNNING WAY BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST NIGHTMARES LATER NEXT
WEEK. FOR TNGT...SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA HAVING MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON PNHDLS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR TNGT. ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR
LATTER PART OF FEB SEEN FOR SUN AND MON WITH SEMIZONAL TO BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORTWAVE TROFS RACING THRU. DRY WX THRU MON
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW CATEGORIES ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY.

THEN THE FUN STARTS BEGINNING TUES AND REMAINDER OF 7 DAY FCST PCKG.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU ON TUE. INITIAL WSHFT ON TUE WITH COOLER
TEMPS TUE AFTN. MEANWHILE...ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN OVERALL REX BLOCK PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT STRONG
UPPER LOW TO ORGANIZE OVER SW US EARLY PART OF WEEK...THEN SLIDE
SLOWLY EWD WED THRU FRI...PSBLY EJECTING THRU THE PLAINS ON SAT.
COLDER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...AND BOTH
GFS/ECMWF PROG THIS LATE TUE NIGHT...MORESO ON WED...THU AND FRI.
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIP. BOTTOM
LINE...DO AGREE WITH THREAT ASSESSMENT CHARTS...MEDIIUM RANGE
MODELS...AND PMDEPD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM AND HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO...EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF TX/OK PNHDLS
AND NWRN OK SOMETIME DURG THE WED THRU FRI TIME FRAME. ALSO AGREE
WITH COMMENTS FROM WFO OUN THAT OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HEAVY
SNOWS HERE IN PNHDLS AND NW OK USUALLY OCCUR IN LATE FEB INTO MARCH.
WITH ALL THE ABV SAID...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO GO AGAINST THE MORAL
MAJORITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE JUST ABOUT IN
AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY MAY GET THAT FAR OUT IN TIME HANDLING SPLIT
FLOW/REX BLOCK. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO CHC CATEGORY FROM
TUE NIGHT THRU FRI BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. INSERTED SLGT
CHC ONLY FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW.
HAVE REDONE SEVERAL GRIDS FROM TUE NIGHT THRU SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR A
WETTER...COLDIER...AND POTENTIALLY WINTERY SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HWO
AND SNOW GRIDS REFLECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. STAY TUNED...COULD
BE INTERESTING LATER NEXT WEEK IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

15/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
453 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-200600-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
453 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

GOEHRING