Damaging Wind in Tennessee, August 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TN
INTO NORTH MS...DESPITE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS APPARENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM NORTHEAST OK ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL. A SHORT WAVE WILL OVERRIDE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO TONIGHT. LAPS INDICATES CAPES BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THUS THINK ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WEST TN / NORTHWEST MS.

THE MIDSOUTH IS FORECAST TO BE IN A LITTLE WETTER PATTERN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE H5 RIDGE THAT COVERS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING IT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LESS HOT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH...DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION.

A H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO A SMALL CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE GFS INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR COMING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTH. MANY TIMES THE GFS OVER AMPLIFIES THE TROUGHS IN
THESE SITUATIONS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO FAST AND TOO
STRONG. AS A RESULT...ATTM WILL GO WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT AND NOT AS STRONG...BUT WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO WEST TN.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-161000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
400 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TENNESSEE TO MARKED TREE ARKANSAS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM NOW UNTIL 10 PM WITH WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND
EAST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.