Wildfire in Oregon, July 22 to 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR8
1013 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2005

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST
WITH MOST ENERGY PUSHED NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST AS SEEN BY
LIGHTNING AND SATELLITE PICTURES WEST OF THE EUGENE. LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
START...BUT CURRENT PICTURES SHOW IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT WITH NEWEST MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THE LOW TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN ACROSS OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS AN OPEN WAVE.
STILL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY GOOD ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...SO
SCATTERED POPS BY MORNING LOOK ON TRACK. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. LOHMANN

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS  EXPECTED.  INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
DRY AIR TO PROVIDE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  WOLF

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE AREA TOO SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF US IN CANADA. THE MAIN
EFFECTS WILL BE TO COOL TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND TO
CAUSE BREEZY WINDS IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OFF OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  PERRY

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPEEDS 25 TO 30 MPH.  CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOHMANN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  91  58  91 /  10  30   0   0
ALW  65  94  61  92 /  10  30   0   0
PSC  64  95  59  93 /  10  30   0   0
YKM  65  94  58  90 /  10  30   0   0
HRI  66  95  58  93 /  10  30   0   0
ELN  65  87  58  85 /  10  30   0   0
RDM  57  91  45  90 /  30  30   0   0
LGD  58  90  55  91 /  10  30   0   0
5J0  55  92  52  93 /  10  30   0   0
DLS  67  91  60  87 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR OREGON ZONES 044-045-047-048.
  ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TODAY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR OREGON ZONES 042-043.
  ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 PM TODAY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     OREGON ZONE 041.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WASHINGTON ZONES 026-027-028-029.
  ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 PM TODAY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     WASHINGTON ZONES 024-025.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED THE DAY ONE DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1210 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2005

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WAZ024>030-ORZ041>050-221215-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-BLUE MOUNTAINS-
JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-
1210 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON (FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT)...
     EAST COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES OF THE
     SOUTHERN CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER
     COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
     OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH
     CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  THE
COMBINATION OF HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR AND THUS HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THEREFORE...ANY FIRE STARTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
COULD GROW RAPIDLY INTO WILDFIRES...WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE
TOWERING SMOKE COLUMNS. GLOWING EMBERS IN A SMOKE COLUMN CAN FALL
OUT DOWNWIND FROM THE SMOKE COLUMN AND LEAD TO SPOTTING AND THUS
ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS DOWNWIND FROM THE MAIN FIRE. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM PDT FOR THE YAKIMA
VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...
JOHN DAY BASIN...THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY...
     EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
     WALLOWA COUNTY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN EASTERN OREGON AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. A
RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO DRY LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...AND FROM 7 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL... NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST LIGHTNING EVENT TO OCCUR AFTER A PROLONGED
DRY PERIOD COMBINED WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS SUCH...THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE STARTS GENERATED BY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT WMO
HEADER: WWUS86 KPDT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
     EAST COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES OF THE
     SOUTHERN CASCADES, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER
     COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
     OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN,
     OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING.  MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
FRIDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES LEADING
TO FIRE STARTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PROTOTYPE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

AND SELECT GRAPHICAL HAZARDS.