Damaging Wind in New York, August 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 AM EST THURSDAY AUG 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATED MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
SECOND HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW WAS OVER WESTERN
HUDSON BAY CANADA TRAILING A FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WERE ACROSS CANADA AND
ALASKA.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY
WILL MORE THAN QUALIFY AS AN AUGUST DOG DAY WITH THE NAM AND FWC
MOS GIVING ALBANY A HIGH OF 93 AND THE GFS/MOS 91...WITH A DEW
POINT CLOSE TO 70. THETA E VALUES ON THE NAM GO INTO THE 350S
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WILL PUT LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAM MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT PASSAGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...STARTING AROUND 06Z IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...
PASSING THROUGH THE ALBANY AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
REACHING SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING.
SPC HAS THE AREA WEST OF US IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY BUT
LOOKS LIKE LESS ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FARTHER EAST SINCE
THE SUN WILL HAVE GONE DOWN SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR. WILL PUT
HAZE IN FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DID NOT USE CAPE VALUES
FROM THE NAM BUT THE GFS HAS CAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY. SOME RAIN FOLLOWS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL START TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AGAIN
LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS THE NAM MOS LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY AND THE LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ON SATURDAY A
WEAK HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  THE
HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A FLOW OF VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIR UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MEX GUIDANCE AS
FORECASTED DEW POINTS...AFTER BEING IN THE MID FIFTIES
ON SATURDAY...GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID SIXTIES BY
MONDAY AND APPROACH 70 BY TUESDAY...BACK TO MORE HOT
AND SULTRY WEATHER...AND BY TUESDAY EVENING CAPE VALUES
ON THE GFS APPROACH 1500 J/KG...IN WHAT APPEARS TO ALMOST
BE A CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH. IT LOOKS TO BE A SITUATION OF
AFTERNOON TROPICAL AIRMASS CONVECTION WITH NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
BUT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
MID DAY AND A FEW AIR-MASS THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP IN MID
AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER
0000Z AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
THE REGION.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR BY
0600Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AGAIN IT WILL BE VERY HUMID AS WELL AS WARM AND
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TODAY WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE DRYING
OF VEGETATION IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
TAPER OFF TOMORROW. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL COME INTO THE
REGION STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MILES AN HOUR ON SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE DRYING CONDITIONS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE LOW WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON RIVERS...BUT CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD FLOOD ROADS
AND PARKING AREAS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING HP TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFF THE EAST COAST AND PUMPS MORE SULTRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY BE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...VTK/RCK
FIRE WX...RCK
HYDRO...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-051100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
145 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WOULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

NYZ042-043-041715-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHESTERTOWN...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTH OF WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOLTON LANDING BY 1255 PM EDT
HULETTS LANDING BY 110 PM EDT
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITEHALL AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAGUE BY 115 PM
EDT

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OF
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

NYZ042-043-084-041800-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE GEORGE MOVING INTO
WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLTON LANDING...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COMSTOCK AND 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARTFORD BY 200 PM EDT

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

SD