Hail in Nebraska, April 9 to 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2005

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS IN THE NEAR TERM...

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL DISPARITY EXISTS IN THE NEAR TERM AS POTENTIAL BLOCKING
PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER
EAST OF THE PLAINS TODAY AS SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST CARVES OUT TROUGH
IN THE WEST. THE PATTERN EVOLVES WITH AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN FLOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. NAM MAINTAINS MOST SOUTHERN TRACK WITH GFS PLACEMENT MORE
NORTH. THEREFORE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH FEW
CHANGES MADE INTO THE EXTENDED BEYOND ADDING THE NEW DAY 7.

AT 07Z NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WAS LIFTING NORTH OF A GORDON
IN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO BBW IN CUSTER COUNTY LINE. THE H85 JET TO 70
KNOTS CONTINUES A FEED OF MOISTURE NORTH WITH CONVECTION TO FOCUS IN
THE CENTRAL AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH 15Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS WARMING EXCEPT INTO THE CENTRAL WITH NAM/RUC BLEND LIFTING
WAVE NORTH SO WILL KEEP SCHC GOING. THE 06Z SOLUTION ARRIVING
ATTM WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEN AS HEATING OCCURS CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EAST WITH
SCHC FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A STUART IN HOLT
COUNTY TO IML IN CHASE COUNTY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS LIS
RAPIDLY FALLING EAST OF THIS LINE TO BELOW ZERO WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE SCNTRL. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
STEADILY INCREASES BEYOND INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WESTWARD EXTENT OF RAIN REMAINS IN QUESTION
ALTHOUGH A BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF WOULD MAINTAIN INCREASE FOR RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED THROUGH THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2005

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-101100-
ARTHUR NE-BLAINE NE-BOYD NE-BROWN NE-CHASE NE-CUSTER NE-DEUEL NE-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-FRONTIER NE-GARDEN NE-GARFIELD NE-GRANT NE-
HAYES NE-HOLT NE-HOOKER NE-KEITH NE-KEYA PAHA NE-LINCOLN NE-LOGAN NE-
LOUP NE-MCPHERSON NE-PERKINS NE-ROCK NE-SHERIDAN NE-THOMAS NE-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-WHEELER NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
350 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST...GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
INTERACT WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEWPORT
IN ROCK COUNTY TO GRANT IN PERKINS COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW IN KEYA PAHA
COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY...IF THE BOUNDARY SLOWS THE POTENTIAL COULD SHIFT
WEST AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS BEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE EAST.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS...TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NEAR
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

MASEK