Damaging Wind in Kentucky, June 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED UPSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING S/W AND
REFLECTIVE COLD FRONT. MOST ORGANIZED STORMS SEEM TO BE STAYING
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE OVERALL BETTER FORCING IS
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER LINE HAS BEEN FILLING IN WITH TIME TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SAT...AND WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...EXPECT AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEING ESCORTED IN GRADUALLY BEHIND EXITING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO HOLD OFF FROM PENETRATING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SO WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

S/W WILL ENCROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PULLED WEATHER ALTOGETHER
AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MORE DIGGING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW. GFS
HAS HAD THE COOLEST 850 TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO NOT FORECAST
MUCH MORE THAN 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH JUNE SUNSHINE AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

EXTENDED...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

MODELS PROJECTING A TROF TO BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ERN 1/3
OF CONUS WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS PROJECTS A NW
WIND AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. BY MON...AS THE
ERN LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC...A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
THE SRN END...OVR THE PANHANDLE OF FL AND MOVES WEST UNDER THE CNTRL
HIGH. BY TUE...THE GULF LOW HAS MOVED FAR ENUF WEST...TO NEW ORLEANS
THAT SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE GULF STATES. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE TN VLY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIG WX
THRU THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT PAST...BUT WITH
THE FULL JUNE SUN AND DRY AIR...SHOULD SEE GOOD WARMING SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE IN THE GFS. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALSO ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD SEE
AS MUCH AS A 30 DEG SWING FROM HIGHS TO LOWS. WITH HIGH IN
CONTROL...SHOULD ALSO SEE GOOD OVERNIGHT TEMP INVERSION AND
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. WILL NOT FCST THE SPLIT ATTM BUT WILL KEEP IN
MIND AND WATCH FOR FUTURE REFERENCE. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS LITTLE DONE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

130 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR INCLUSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATE OUT SOON.

1030 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

EASTERN KENTUCKY IS IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. A LINE OF TSRA HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO
LIE IN A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.

BEFORE THE STORMS MAKE IT HERE...A WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. RECORD
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE 90F IN JACKSON AND 91F IN LONDON AND THESE
ARE CERTAINLY IN REACH WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ANY PRODUCTS THIS MORNING. WILL TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS/SKY/WIND GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT CONDITIONS AND WILL
UPDATED ZONES TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

412 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL IN WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WERE THAT THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
THE COLD FRONT TODAY THAN THE NAM.  THE FORECAST TIMING IS A BLEND
OF THE TWO BUT STRONGER WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE NAM. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE CAPE WITH THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL KY WILL BE 3000 TO
4000 AND WILL DROP OFF TO THE 2000 TO 2500 RANGE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN KY. THIS IS DUE TO THE LATER TIMING OF THE NAM WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN AFTER PEAK HEATING. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...THE
LCLS WILL ALSO BE LOW AND FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE THE FASTER GFS TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE
CORRECT...THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER DUE TO
THE GREATER HEATING AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WENT WITH THE
WARMER NAM MOS TEMPS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE BETTER TIMING OF
THE FRONT.  THINGS WILL COOL OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH THE LOWER NAM MOS POP FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COOLING CONTINUES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO POUR COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...THERE MAY BE SOME
SHORT SPURTS OF SHOWERS AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
TROUGH.

843 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CURRENT HOURLY FORECASTS...AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER
FOR TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INDICATED ON LATEST SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER THAN FORECAST IN THE HOURLY GRIDS FEEL THAT LESS CLOUD...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO CURRENT FORECAST LOWS...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR MINIMUMS
TONIGHT. ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS LESS THAN 10
PCT FOR TONIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THREATS FOR
TONIGHT ARE FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUST TO 60 MPH. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT EASTERN KY IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JACOBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
443 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
06/14/2005  60 MPH           POWELL             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BTERRIZZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
06/14/2005                   POWELL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND. 2 FT DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN

&&

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
06/14/2005                   MONTGOMERY         KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
612 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VERNON            37.36N 84.34W
06/14/2005                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VERNON            37.36N 84.34W
06/14/2005                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PORCH AWNING DESTROYED

&&

DUSTY