Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
224 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY IN THE SURFACE OBS...AND IS STILL
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE FRONT HAS NOT KICKED OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. THINK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH CAN STILL BE SEEN
CENTERED OVER EASTERN KS IN THE 500 MB PROFILER DATA...COUNTER ACTED
THE LIFT OF THE FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
COMMENCED OVER NORTHER OK AND SOUTHERN KS. THE OTHER AREA OF PRECIP
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IS BELIEVED TO BE GENERATED BY A VORT MAX SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR THAT IS SHEARING OUT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THINK DRY
AIR MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL
BECAUSE OF THE DRYER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DID NOT LIKE THE
VORT MAX THE GFS GENERATES OVER NORTHEAST CO ON THE 06Z RUN. THIS
LOOKS A LITTLE FISHY WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. THEREFORE
LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.

FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT CLEARING AS
DRY AIR MOVES IN...HENCE SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. CLOUDY SKIES UP NORTH
HAVE LEFT TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN...THINK WITH SOME SUN HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID
80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE LOWERS 60S AND UPPER 50S
WITH COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN OVERNIGHT.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...HARD PRESSED TO FIND A DEPENDABLE FEATURE FOR
KEEPING PRECIP IN FORECAST FOR EARLY HOURS SATURDAY...WITH
ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOWING MOSTLY DOWNGLIDE AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH OVER STABLE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL HOLD ON MUCH OF THE DAY...AND HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS JUST A BIT
TO NEAR THE 90 MARK...SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN
RETURNS TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BACK INTO THE LOW 90S. GFS
FORMS WEAK TROF OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT CANT SEE A FEATURE
OUT WEST TO SUPPORT THIS...AND APPEARS TO BE CONVOLUTED BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON-THURS...WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AS UPPER
PATTERN ON EAST SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE LEAVES KANSAS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD AID RETURN
OF TEMPERATURES 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. SHORTWAVES MAY RIPPLE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM...BUT HARD TO
TIME AND HAVE ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051030-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
325 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)