Hail in Kansas, August 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FROM NEAR BUTLER TO SEDALIA WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR
IRK TO MKC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK. CENTER OF
THE UPR RIDGE WAS PARKED OVER THE CWA AS SEEN BY MOISTURE IMAGERY
AND PROFILERS. THIS LIKELY INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

ANOTHER AREA OF SCT SHOWERS WAS IN ERN AND SRN NEBRASKA. H7 MOISTURE
PLUME NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO A
WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE PROFILER NETWORK IN SC/SWRN NEB.
VERTICAL MOTION MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
ELONGATED H3 JET STRETCHING FROM SD TO MINN.

BY LATE TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO SRN MO WITH THE WEAK NEB SHORTWAVE SHEARING EAST INTO IA.
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE H3 JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN IA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF WEAK UVV MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AS THE H7 MOIST BAND SAGS SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OR 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MO TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO ARK AND OKLA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE
STABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY
RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DB

TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW CLIMB INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH A FRONT WORKING ITS
WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...SO
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING.

STOFLET

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

345 AM...
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS CAUSED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
TODAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
AND SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL IN THE 80S. HOWEVER
TEMPS MAY BE EVEN COOLER DEPENDING ON SCATTERED PRECIP AND NEXT
SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE. CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO
WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS EXTENSIVE AS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA.
LIKEWISE THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.

PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SCATTERED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS CREATE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE MORE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DIFFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LINGERING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION...PUSHING THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HELD ON TO LOW PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR ONLY CENTRAL MISSOURI.

NRR

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SEDALIA
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM LA CYNGE KANSAS
EAST TO SEDALIA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DB