Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, April 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...

UPPER LOW BEHAVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED SO FAR, WITH LOW
CLOSING OFF JUST E OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEEPER CLOSED SYSTEM THRU THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS WILL EVOLVE AS
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA,
AS CONTINUED NORTHWARD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ENCOUNTERS COLDER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/COOLING AS TROF APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK, THAT
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY JUST EAST
OF SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG DRYLINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ALONG SLOW MIGRATORY COLD FRONT. THOUGH PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK, A NARROW WINDOW IN TIME AND SPACE WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, MAINLY WEST
OF I-135, WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE FLOW MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
BACKED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
EVOLUTION INTO SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALL IN ALL, GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
PRETTY WELL IN HAND, SO ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SIMILAR TO LAST SYSTEM, CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE
RISK AND PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH, THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP UNDER MOIST MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL. LITTLE
CHANGE TO FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  51  64  42 /  60  70  30  20
HUTCHINSON      70  48  62  40 /  70  60  40  20
NEWTON          72  50  64  41 /  60  70  40  20
ELDORADO        73  52  66  42 /  50  80  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  52  67  43 /  50  80  30  20
RUSSELL         66  45  55  38 /  70  60  40  30
GREAT BEND      67  45  56  38 /  70  60  40  20
SALINA          70  49  62  41 /  60  70  50  30
MCPHERSON       70  49  63  40 /  60  70  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  55  72  45 /  40  80  30  20
CHANUTE         75  55  71  45 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            75  55  71  45 /  40  80  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
532 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
532 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON
LINE. A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS ALWAYS, THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
INTO MONDAY, THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE
ON THE MAGNITUDE AND TYPE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
108 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

KSZ032-042-048-050>051-067>069-082>083-091>093-110100-
BARTON KS-BUTLER KS-COWLEY KS-ELLSWORTH KS-HARPER KS-
HARVEY KS-KINGMAN KS-MCPHERSON KS-RENO KS-RICE KS-
RUSSELL KS-SEDGWICK KS-SUMNER KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 141 UNTIL 800
PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

BARTON                ELLSWORTH             MCPHERSON
RICE                  RUSSELL

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

BUTLER                COWLEY                HARPER
HARVEY                KINGMAN               RENO
SEDGWICK              SUMNER

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ANTHONY...DOWNTOWN WICHITA...EL DORADO...
ELLSWORTH...GREAT BEND...HUTCHINSON...KINGMAN...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...
RUSSELL...WELLINGTON AND WINFIELD.