Hail in Iowa, May 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...WITH WARM SECTOR ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE POOLING OVER
EASTERN CWA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TROF
AXIS WRAPPING NORTHEAST AROUND LOW PRESSURE SHOULD AID IN IGNITING
CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. MAY SEE TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT. ONE ALONG
TROF AXIS/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING  IN OR
JUST EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...AND THE OTHER NEAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
SHEAR/HELICITY. WHILE NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG
TORNADO THREAT...INDICES ARE DECENT ENOUGH TO MENTION POTENTIAL. AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR BY DOESNT HURT. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
CELLS MOVING INTO MINNESOTA ALONG TROF AXIS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS SIMILAR TO WESTERN SD TODAY. MAY INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE OUR QUIET
PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR WAVE.

WILL STILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALL
AREAS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY ACTUALLY SEE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND THUNDER OVER
WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR SFC BOUNDARY PLACEMENT...THE GFS GETTING OUR SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHILE THE ETA LEAVES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORTS SOMETHING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA.
BELIEVE THAT BY THURSDAY...FRONT COULD BE PUSHED THAT FAR SOUTH AS A
DECENT MCS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPING PUSH IT SOUTH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH UPPER WAVE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN THINGS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND. NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE WARM NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD SEE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS AND SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE TEMPERED
POPS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THE ETA ALREADY HINTING AT THIS WITH A LITTLE STRONGER PUSH
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WEDNESDAY INTO NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-091200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A LINE FROM HURON TO MITCHELL TO TYNDALL. THESE STORMS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH BOTH AREAS OF STORMS...THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO STORM LAKE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
BE LIKELY AFTER 4 PM IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             BROOKINGS               44.31N 96.79W
05/08/2005  0.88 INCH        BROOKINGS          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM     HAIL             BROOKINGS               44.31N 96.79W
05/08/2005  0.88 INCH        BROOKINGS          SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WEST SIDE OF BROOKINGS.

&&

BUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             1 NE MARATHON           42.87N 94.97W
05/08/2005  1.00 INCH        BUENA VISTA        IA   PUBLIC

0424 PM     HAIL             SPENCER                 43.15N 95.15W
05/08/2005  1.00 INCH        CLAY               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
431 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             SPENCER                 43.15N 95.15W
05/08/2005  0.88 INCH        CLAY               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             SIOUX RAPIDS            42.89N 95.15W
05/08/2005  0.88 INCH        BUENA VISTA        IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
452 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             2 S OKOBOJI             43.36N 95.14W
05/08/2005  0.75 INCH        DICKINSON          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
529 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             1 N VERMILLION          42.80N 96.93W
05/08/2005  0.75 INCH        CLAY               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM     HAIL             BRUCE                   44.44N 96.89W
05/08/2005  0.75 INCH        BROOKINGS          SD   AMATEUR RADIO

0508 PM     HAIL             5 NW HARTLEY            43.23N 95.55W
05/08/2005  0.75 INCH        OBRIEN            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0428 PM     HAIL             SPENCER                 43.15N 95.15W
05/08/2005  1.00 INCH        CLAY               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BUSS