Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING VALLEY FOG MIXING WITH RIDGETOP CU
DEVELOPING ATTM. RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ISO SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TN/NC LINE. CAPES ESTIMATED BY THE LAPS RANGE FROM 2500 EAST TO 1000
J/KG WEST. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATION WILL SEE DEEP CONVECTION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW...CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ADJUST GRIDS TO ADD SOME TIMING.

BASED ON OBS AND MOS TRENDS WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPS A CLICK OR
TWO...EAST OF THE MTNS WILL FORECAST TEMPS FROM U80S TO AROUND 90.
WITH DWPTS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO MID TO UPPER 60S SREF ADVERTISES
CAPES BUILDING TO 2500-3000 BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LACK
OF TRIGGER AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL FORECAST ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOME ROUGE VERY WEAK RETURNS NOTED WITHIN THE LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST SW OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL GENERALLY ORIENT POPS
INTO THE FAVORED DIURNAL TIMEFRAME TODAY. STILL SOME SEMBLANCE OF
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AND FLOW IS AGAIN EXPECTEDLY VERY WEAK.
FEEL CVRG WILL BE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN LESS CAPPING...
POSSIBLE LEE TROUGHING AND PERHAPS SOME EASTERLY FLOW...AS PER
00Z NAM. NOT AS MUCH DRIER AIR/THETA-E LAPSES NOTED IN THE MID-LVLS
TODAY...WHICH AIDED IN A FEW PULSE SVR STORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN
OVERALL GREATER CVRG OF STORMS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 OR 3 COULD FORM
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SUMMERTIME WEAK FLOW REGIME AND DAILY
BOUTS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT THE TREND IS PROGRESSIVELY
MORE MOIST WITH A PERSISTENT ATLANTIC TRAJECTORY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE THE TREND TOWARD AN EASTERLY SFC-70H FLOW TUESDAY AND
AN EVEN DEEPER SSELY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. ALL THIS EQUATES TO AT LEAST
SCATTERED TSTMS EACH DAY...AND PERHAPS STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
EAST ATLANTIC HIGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT STAYING MAINLY N OF AREA...AND NO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ABSENT. DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCES DRIVING CONVECTION...AND IT APPEARS JUST ABOUT ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE PERIOD. WITH CONTINUING WEAK UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.

AVIATION...
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR FOG TO
GROW IN COVERAGE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. EXPECT KAVL AND KAND TO ONCE
AGAIN HAVE IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES UNTIL 12Z OR SO. LIKE
YESTERDAY...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICK. MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL
BE THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...LESS OF CAP...AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STORMS THAN
YESTERDAY. NOT CONVINCED THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
ETA SHOWS AND WILL KEEP VCTS OUT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...AFTER CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-071012-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
612 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL...ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ALL THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.