Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATING TO MOVE LIKELY POPS TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF AREA WITH CHANCE
TO W. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING S ACROSS I-40 CORRIDOR AND
JUST S OF US 74...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION FROM KAND TO
LAKE RUSSELL. UPDATED HOULY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FROM OBSERVED
DATA...AND WIND FROM RUC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 314 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE...
HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE WRN NC
FOOTHILLS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SHARP INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE
WRN NC FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO GO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THIS AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WL AID MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND HELP ANCHOR CELLS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES...WHICH IS
THE REASON FOR EXTENDING THE WATCH IN AREAL EXTENT. CONVECTION
SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO KEEP THE WATCH UP LONG ENUF TO BE SURE TO CAPTURE THE ENTIRE
EVENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 221 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
WL KEEP SCT CONVECTION IN THROUGH SUNSET...BUT WITH LIGHT SHEAR
DON/T THINK THAT TSTMS WL BE ABLE TO PERSIST AFTER DAYTIME HEATING
IS LOST. MIN TEMPS WL BE A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. WL ALSO ADD
SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE NC MTNS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY DISSIPATES
AS KICKER SHIFTS ENERGY TO NORTH PART OF FLOW.  RIDGE
SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND SETTING
UP VERY WARM THICKNESS PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND.  AGREE
WITH HPC ASSESSMENT AND WILL STICK WITH GFS/EC SOLUTION.

AS TROUGH WEAKEN AND MOVES OFFSHORE HIGHER LEVEL FORCING
WILL NO LONGER ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER AREA.  PLAN
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE AFTN AND EVENING
TSTMS OVER MTN REGIONS.

AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE KHKY
AND KAVL VCNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THEREFORE HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP IN AT THOSE SITES FOR TSTMS THROUGH 2100 UTC. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ANYWHERE ELSE FOR TEMPO...BUT CONVECTION WL BE PREVALENT ENUF
THAT WL CONTINUE VCTS AND CB IN THE OTHER TAFS. OVERNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATER TNGT AT KAVL AS VALLEY FOG SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP. MOST OTHER TAF SITES ARE CLOSE TO CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE THERE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS ANYWHERE ELSE. HAVE ADDED CB TO ALL TAFS STARTING AT NOON
TMRW...BUT HELD OFF ON VCTS AS EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE LESS
TMRW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ034-048-051>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-210945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
105 PM AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WESTWARD. THE
STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MADISON... HAYWOOD... JACKSON...
SWAIN... GRAHAM... AND MACON COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL RETURN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PA 34.94N 82.40W
06/20/2005  0.88 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   UNKNOWN

            NICKEL TO PEA SIZE HAIL AT PARIS MTN., 1/4 INCH AT PEBBLE
            CREEK AREA.

&&

TBENTHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             3 SE EASLEY             34.79N 82.55W
06/20/2005  0.88 INCH        PICKENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE PICKENS, ANDERSON, GREENVILLE
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 WNW GREENVILLE        34.88N 82.49W
06/20/2005  0.88 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALONG SALUDA DAM ROAD NEAR
            GREENVILLE COUNTY LINE.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             POWDERSVILLE            34.79N 82.49W
06/20/2005  0.88 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT MILE MARKER 30 ON I-85.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             10 NNE ANDERSON         34.65N 82.58W
06/20/2005  1.00 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE INCH HAIL AT EXIT 27 ON I-85.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

NCZ068>070-SCZ008-009-202315-
CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...LINCOLNTON...
ROCK HILL...SHELBY
613 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH 8 PM...

AT 610 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM GASTONIA TO CLOVER AND FROM
SHELBY TO GAFFNEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL LIKELY. STREET
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

HG