Flash Flood in Georgia, August 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/AL WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP 10 TO 20% FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE/I-26 WEST. FURTHER EAST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
RATHER SHARP DEMARKATION BETWEEN ORGANIZED PRECIP AND SHOWERY
ACTIVITY...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR (AS INDICATED ON THE GSO
SOUNDING THIS MORNING.) WITH THIS IN MIND... LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10%
ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.9 INCHES INDICATED
ON THE FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING...AND THE FACT THAT FORCING IS
RATHER RESPECTABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST...WILL ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING
AND BEEF UP QPF ACROSS THE WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. DID
LOWER MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ELEMENTS REQUIRE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE
AND THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING DEEP SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
AS WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EAST.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSRA DEVELOP TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. UPPER LOW OPENS
UP AND MOVES EAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE DECREASES TUESDAY ALLOWING MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE STORM TOTAL PRECIP UP TO 3
INCHES IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY. EVEN WITH
THESE AMOUNTS...PRECIP NEARLY EVENLY SPREAD OUT OVER THE AREA.
FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT IF IT DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE
DURATION INSTEAD OF FLASHY.

WITH CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
MONDAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT LESS SO TUE WITH HIGHER THICKNESSES
AND SOME SUN.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES EACH PERIOD...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCE
EARLY WITH SOME RESIDUAL DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER...MORE COPIOUS
MOISTURE. TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POP WED TO BLEND BETTER WITH SHORT TERM FCST CHANGES...BUT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OTHER FIELDS/TIME PERIODS.

AVIATION...
KAVL ALREADY LIFR WITH CEILING VARYING FROM 002 TO 004 SINCE 4Z.
EXPECT LOW MTN CLOUDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z...UNTIL THEN VIS MAY
FALL TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF IFR DUE TO DZ OR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.
EAST...MVFR CLOUDS AT 6Z WERE OBS OVER THE MID SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. NAM ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS CLOUDS LT 020 THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SHRA. CLOSED H5 LOW EXPANDS OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BROAD AREA OF OMEGA. TS AND CB SHOULD DEVELOP BY 19Z WITH
CONDITIONS ON THE LINE OF VFR TO MVFR. MOS INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WILL LIMIT AT MVFR AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-081000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
072030-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-
CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENWOOD-HART-
IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-POLK NC-ROWAN-
RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-UNION NC-UNION SC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHARLOTTE...
CHESTER...CONCORD...ELBERTON...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...GREENVILLE...
GREENWOOD...HARTWELL...HICKORY...LAURENS...LINCOLNTON...MARION...
MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...MORGANTON...ROCK HILL...RUTHERFORDTON...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...SPARTANBURG...STATESVILLE...TOCCOA...TRYON...
UNION
240 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2005

...STORMS WITH BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 235 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE SHOWING WEAK
ROTATION ON DOPPLER RADAR MAY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  MOST OF THE STORMS
ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA EXTENDING
INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA.  THIS THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  BE ALERT TO THESE STORMS AND SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

OUTLAW