Hail in Georgia, August 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATING PACKAGE FOR TORNADO WATCH 757...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10Z.
FIRST SPIRAL BAND MOVING NE INTO SW NC...AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL RORTAING STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 302 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE STILL PROJECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND WE
WILL STILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HAVE GENERALLY
DISCOUNTED THE NAM FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA WL BE
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE CIRCULATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE LARGE...AND BANDS OF STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND 300 MILES EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. AS IT MOVES NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS...MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA WL BE THAT SAME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING OVER WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC AS THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LARGE RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. DURING THIS TIME THE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
200 WEST OF A GREENWOOD TO GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE LINE. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY WL BE MARGINAL...SILL EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER ABOUT THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWFA.

LLVL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH TMRW.
HOWEVER...AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THE FLOW ALOFT WL VEER A COMMISERATE AMOUNT
AND LLVL HELICITY VALUES WL REMAIN HIGH AND TORNADO THREAT WL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF OUR MTN ZONES...A SMALL PART OF THE UPSTATE...MOST OF NE GA AND
NC WRN NC FOOTHILLS. CERTAINLY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
EXISTS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN NC MTNS...THE NE GA MTNS AND THE WRN MOST UPSTATE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...THE LLVL FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WL LIKELY VEER TOO QUICKLY FOR
FLOODING RAIN TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WL NOT CUT BACK THE WATCH ANY
ATTM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TUE...AND IF ANY OF THESE BANDS TRAIN FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME...THEN WE COULD SEE A FLASH FLOOD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER THE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGELY ISOLATED WITH THE
WEAK FORCING.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVES
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT RAPIDLY FROM THE TOP
DOWN....AS FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TUESDAY EVENING. WILL REDUCE POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE IN ALL
AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL LIMIT CHANCE
POPS TO THE MNTNS...AS NW FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE TENN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...POPS WILL BE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A
STRONG SW TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES PHASED WITH
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE RESULT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL DECREASE TEMPS TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE IN THE PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...IT
APPEARS THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

AVIATION...
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS IS TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WL FAVOR THE MAV
MOS...AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS TAFS...AS THE GFS IS DOING A
BETTER JOB WITH KATRINA THAN THE MET. CIGS WL GRADUALLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING A
FEW HRS AFTER THE MVFR CIGS. WL INTRODUCE PREVAILING SHRA AT ALL
SITES EXPECT KCLT WHICH WL SEE LESS UPSLOPE INDUCED PCPN. WL CARRY A
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS ALL TAFS BEGINNING LATE TMRW AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS WL BECOME STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS  WITH A LITTLE HEATING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TORNADO WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL
     8 AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ051-058-059-062-063 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>005 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...TORNADO WATCH FOR SCZ001-004 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-SCZ001>005-
301015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-CALDWELL-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
613 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN LOCAL AREAS MAY
CAUSE URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-
301015-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
613 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  PLEASE SEND PRODUCT CAEFFAGSP FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

IN ADDITION LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE
UPROOTED TREES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR FALLEN TREES ON
MOUNTAIN ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT.

DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-300900-
HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...
COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...
CHESTER...GREENWOOD
349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

HURRICANE KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...AND
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA
POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO KATRINA...THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNAODES EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS WILL
INCREASE.

ALTHOUGH THE GREATER THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT...TROPICAL RAIN BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST TO INCLUDE THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>005-
300900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND GUSTY HIGH ELEVATION WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

HURRICANE KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...AND
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA
POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO KATRINA...THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNAODES EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE RAIN BANDS WILL
INCREASE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA...AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF
THE FOOTHILLS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND TORNADOES...WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
MAINLY ALONG PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-062-SCZ001-004-300145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN
732 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PART OF THE CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WERE RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTH...BUT THE BANDS OF STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
AREA. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
WESTERN MOST PART OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

JONES