High Surf in Florida, September 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

.SHORT TERM...RADAR PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 55 MPH ON THE LAST
ADVISORY. COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY NE FL. LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR
LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM OVER SRN GA AND SC. RUC 300 MB
STREAMLINES INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NC
AND STRETCHES SW INTO GA. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN WORKING INTO THE REGION RAIN CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE LAST 24-48 HRS AGO. STILL
PLANNING ON 50-60% FOR A PORTION OF THE NE FL COAST TRIMMING DOWN TO
10% OR LESS FOR INLAND SE GA TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
INDICATIONS THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SWD WHICH
FOLLOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS PROGS INDICATING LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK THOUGH AM RELUCTANT TO
DROP POPS AS FAST AS THE GFS...TO 20% OR LESS ON FRI. WILL SHOW A
MORE GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE N. IN MOST CASES...WRN SIDE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DRIER ANYWAY. AS FOR FLOOD WATCH...STILL LOOKS
FINE FOR NOW DUE TO CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT IF GFS MASS MOISTURE
PROGS ARE RIGHT WE WILL SEE THE THREAT DIMINISHING AT LEAST BY
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON NEXT TPC CONFERENCE CALL AND ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO REISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...SLIGHTLY CHANGES MADE TO THE POPS AND TEMPS BUT GENERAL
FORECAST LOOKS FINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N
AS OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LOWER POPS. STILL
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ROUGHLY 20-30% POPS AT
LEAST FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAINLY COASTAL
AND INLAND FL ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT STILL BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING THANKS TO THE
TIDES NOT RUNNING ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. REPORTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY INDICATED MAJOR EROSION ALONG FLAGLER BEACH...WITH HIGH
SURF POUNDING THE ENTIRE COAST. DATA BUOY OFFSHORE ST AUGUSTINE
SHOWING NE SUSTAINED WINDS 27 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS WITH
SEAS RUNNING 12 TO 13 FEET THUS FAR. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FCST
GOING UNTIL NEXT ADVISORY COMES OUT FROM THE NHC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  67  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  84  75  86  73 /  40  40  30  30
JAX  84  71  87  69 /  40  40  30  30
SGJ  83  77  86  74 /  60  50  40  30
GNV  86  71  88  67 /  30  20  30  20
OCF  86  71  88  68 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...PUTNAM...AND ST JOHNS.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...AND ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL CAMDEN...AND COASTAL GLYNN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
      ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL TO 60 NM.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL TO 60 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...SHASHY
MARINE/FIRE WX...PETERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
700 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-090915-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
700 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER
BEACH...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR CLAY...PUTNAM...COASTAL GLYNN AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. THE INCREASED WIND AND SWELL ACTION WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES AS WELL AS
LARGE BREAKERS. SEE THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE
INFORMATION FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
ASHORE BEFORE WEAKENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME TRAINING OF
SHOWERS...RESULTING IN MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON DIRECT IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HIGH
SURF...MODERATE BEACH EROSION...AND POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT MOVEMENT AND FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE
STORM...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME PORTION OF
THE REGION ON EARLY FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE ON
THE THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY
ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR HIGH WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ARS