High Surf in Florida, September 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

.UPDATE 2...HURRICANE OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY WEST OVERNIGHT
WHICH HAS HELPED TO MOVE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. MFL SOUNDING THIS MORNING ALSO CAME
IN MORE STABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE PWAT AT 1.9
INCHES...500MB TMP -6C...LIFTED INDEX AROUND -6. SO THE POPS LOOKS
GOOD FOR TODAY ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

BOUY 41010 WAS REPORTING 12 TO 14 FEET WITH 11 SECONDS AND BOUY
41009 WAS REPORTING 10 FEET WITH 11 SECONDS THIS MORNING. THESE
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
HURRICANE OPHELIA. WW3 ALSO SHOWS CLOSE TO 3 M/S (9 FEET) NEAR
PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH DECAY BUILD INTO THE
SWELLS FROM THE BOUYS...THE SWELLS WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 FEET WITH
BREAKERS AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY TODAY. SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY TODAY UNTIL 6 PM EDT.

WITH THE LARGER SWELL FORECAST...HAVE ALSO PUT UP A SCA FOR THE
GULF STREAM WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND SCEC FOR
REST OF THE WATERS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&
BAXTER

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...WW3 SHOWS INCREASED SWELL TODAY. SWELL WAVES ARE AT LEAST
SIX FEET NOW OFF PALM BEACH. GIVEN ANY INCREASE TODAY...SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR SEAS. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WILL
HEADLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES ON ZONE
FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TROUGH STILL EXTENDS FROM OPHELIA...STILL SPINNING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. DISTINCT MOISTURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE MID 70S IN
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND UPPER 70S IN THE KEYS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES ARE ABNORMALLY LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...AROUND AN
INCH...AND REMAIN A MORE TYPICAL TWO INCHES OR SO IN SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING POPS FOR MAINLAND MONROE...MIAMI- DADE...AND EASTERN
BROWARD. MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL AIR WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. EXPECT TEMPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. DRIER NIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR NORTH
AREAS.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...OPHELIA WILL MAKE ITS LANDFALL IN THE
CAROLINAS BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
THEN BUILD WEST ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. THE GFS IS SHOWING A
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO EASTERN CUBA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE MAY SERVE TO RAMP UP MOISTURE LEVELS. WILL MONITOR.

MARINE...MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. THE GENERATION
AREA IS JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF OPHELIA. BUOYS
41009 AND 41010 CONTINUE TO SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 7 TO 10 FOOT SWELL
HEIGHTS WITH 12S PERIODS...MOVING SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
AND ARE POISED TO SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN SWELL DECAY...THIS
TRANSLATES TO AS MUCH AS 6FT SWELL OFF JUPITER INLET...AND 4 TO 5FT
SWELL OFF SOUTH BEACH. COMBINED SEAS MAY STAY JUST AT CAUTION
LEVELS FOR PALM BEACH WATERS. THE SWELL WILL POSE AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO BEACH SWIMMERS ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY MAKING NAVIGATING OUT OF INLETS
TRICKY. HOWEVER...EXPECT LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...RHS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN AREAS SOUTH OF
THE LAKE. EXPECT LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR FLZ068.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

FLZ063-066>075-131000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
824 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PALM BEACH COAST UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CREATE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED NOT TO SWIM
AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LIFEGUARDS.

WAVES: 5 TO 8 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOATERS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SHOULD EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
INLETS, JETTIES AND IN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DURING HIGH TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.