Hail in Florida, September 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OPHELIA ACROSS EXTREME S FLA
AND THIS HAS GENERATED AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS SCATTERED SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FAR
SE CST. WILL NO DOUBT SEE SOME LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME NE TO SE
BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AIDING IN SOME COVERGENCE WITH
THE STEERING FLOW STILL SW TO NE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THIS FEATURE
NICELY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PERSISTING BEHIND THE TROUGH AROUND
LAKE OKEE. MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL LOOK BETTER THAN MET BUT
WILL NUDGE THE POPS UP A PERCENTAGE OR TWO AS THE TROUGH BOUNDARY
STAYS OVER THE SAME VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY. ETA OF COURSE STILL
HAS NO IDEA WHAT TO DO WITH OPHELIA AND ACTUALLY DISSIPATES IT
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. SO ANOTHER REASON TO DISCOUNT
ITS NUMBERS FOR POPS. THE GFS DOES SHOW AS OPHELIA STAGGERS TO THE
NE AND THEN S AGAIN THE DRIER AIR COMES BACK TO ENVELOPE ALL OF
THE PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, I DONT SEE THE REASONING FOR
THIS ERRATIC MOVEMENT AS OPHELIA SHOULD BE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PALM BEACH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
BROWARD WATERS BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
GFS STILL BRINGS LARGER SWELLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT
THIS IS ALL DEPENDANT ON THE FACT THE GFS STRENGTHENS OPHELIA. SO
WILL LEAVE CURRENT SWELL FORECAST ALONE FOR THE TIME BEING. AT ANY
RATE, SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /  10  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  92  77  91 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            78  92  78  92 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  89  75  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
646 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

FLZ063-066>075-112300-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
646 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM OLPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TORNADO          MIAMI BEACH             25.81N 80.13W
09/10/2005                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&
REPORTED BY MIC MIA

RADER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

FLZ071>074-110330-
WESTERN BROWARD-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-
DADE METROPOLITAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...
FORT LAUDERDALE...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI
918 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL MOVE INTO
METRO BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THESE STORMS.