Hail in Florida, May 4, 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...A WET COUPLE DAYS COMING UP WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...

MODEL OF CHOICE WILL BE GFS FOR FRONTAL BDRY POSN...ALBEIT WITH A
WEAKER SFC SOLN...RESULTING IN WINDS NOT BEING NEARLY AS STRONG OVER
THE ATLC.

CURRENTLY...A SULTRY MORNING IS IN PROGRESS AREAWIDE WITH MAIONLY
L70S TEMPS (SOME U60S NORTH). SFC OBS/ADAS ANLYS INDICATE THAT HUNG
UP FRONTAL BDRY IS STILL EITHER NEAR OR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE. RECENT
REGNERATION OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS A RESULT OF
STRONG H25 JET FORCING COUPLED WITH AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH MEAN PWAT AIR WILL OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE
CWA TODAY AS STRONG H25 DIVG SITS ATOP CTRL FL. ADD IN THE HIGH SUN
ANGLE OF EARLY MAY...AND WITH SUCH A COMBINATION PLACE...IT WONT
TAKE LONG AT ALL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. DONT SEE A REASON
WHY ANY AREAS WOULD GET LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION TODAY...AND AS SUCH
HAVE RUNG UP A 90 POP AREAWIDE TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING
TONIGHT (MAINLY BEFORE 06Z) AS RESIDUAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
TAKE A WHILE TO GET USED UP.

W/R/T STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL...H50 TEMPS WILL AVG -11/-12C...PRETTY
SIMILAR TO TUE. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW-MOD LOCAL THREATS FOR HAIL
AND WIND (WITH HAIL THE MORE SIG SVR THREAT) IN THE (G)HWO SUITE...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY FLOODING FROM STORMS AS WELL.

THU-FRI...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
TAP INTO ANTECEDENT SURFACE MOISTURE AND INTERACT WITH THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS. SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -14C WILL PROMOTE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISURE MAY RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
FRIDAY BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS.

SAT-TUE...STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH
OF COCOA BEACH FROM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEG BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN LOCALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT...SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND THEN BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  68  78  64 /  90  60  50  40
MCO  83  65  82  64 /  90  60  50  40
MLB  81  69  82  66 /  90  60  60  50
VRB  82  68  83  68 /  90  60  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT-TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG-TERM...HIRSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
051000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
630 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT FROM
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS...AND THE HIGH MAY SUN ANGLE...WILL LEAD TO
RAPID FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
STORMS TO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OR A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

OF COURSE...ANY FLORIDA LIGHTNING STORM CAN BE A KILLER...SO YOU
SHOULD ALWAYS SEEK SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON
IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
TEMPORARY INUNDATION OF SOME ROADS AND LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
AREAS. REMEMBER NOT TO DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...
LOCALLY CONFUSED SEAS...AND POSSIBLE EVEN A WATERSPOUT...MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
A DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLZ046-041100-
SEMINOLE-
620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...COMPACT...INTENSE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER
SEMINOLE COUNTY...

AT 617 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER MAITLAND AND FERN PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL HAIL
INCLUDE WINTER SPRINGS...GENEVA AND MIDWAY.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLZ041-141-041245-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
754 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 747 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE LEON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE DAYTONA BEACH...ORANGE CITY...AND PONCE INLET.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI