Funnel Cloud in Florida, May 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

...STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER WET DAY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY UNSTABLE SET UP WITH MUCAPES REGISTERING A
STRONG 4500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE IN THE
MID 70S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES. STEERING
FLOW IS LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL AGAIN EQUATE TO SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION
PATTERNS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON AND IN
PALM BEACH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...BECAUSE OF THE WEAKER SW
STEERING FLOW...THE EAST AND WEST COAST CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AREAS THAN WEVE SEEN IN PAST FEW
DAYS. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...THE WBZ IS AT 12.8KFT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO NOT SEEING MAJOR DRY SLOT IN MID LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE LINE STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS...FAVORING THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE INTERIOR AREAS.

WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY BUT
BECOMES SW TUE AND WED AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS LIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...SHIFTING HIGH PRES
OVER CENTRAL CARIB/FLA PENINSULA EASTWARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY SURFACE
HIGH PRES OVER S FLA TODAY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN ALLOWS
PRECIP -ITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES TUE...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE WED. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW E/W
COAST SEA BREEZES AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPS EXPECTED
AGAIN OVER S FLA...HIGHER POPS E HALF OF THE FLA PENINSULA TODAY BUT
POSSIBLY FINALLY SOME RAIN FOR THE W HALF TUE AND WED...THOUGH
LESSOR AMOUNTS AS MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE TO THE NE. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
AGAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL TODAY...TUE AND WED. MAV
GUIDANCE STILL TOO LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY E COAST AND
WILL LEAN TOWARDS MET WITH INHERITED POPS FOR TUE/WED TO REMAIN
SAME. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY WITH MID 90S EXPECTED
INTERIOR S FLA.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...THU THROUGH SUN...SURFACE LOW PRES IN SE U.S.
MOVES NE INTO ATLC AND HIGH PRES SURFACE/ALOFT REBUILDS OVER S FLA.
UPPER WIND FLOW BECOMES SE AND MORE PRONOUNCED INTO THE WEEKEND
GIVING S FLA A MORE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH E COAST NOCTURNAL
/EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION WITH AFTERNOON AND EVE ACTIVITY
INTERIOR AND W....FINALLY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
PARCHED W COAST AREAS. TEMPS MORE NORMAL ALL AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TUE AND WED...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN THU AND FRI. SPEEDS BELOW
15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 3 FEET ATLC/GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST
PART...MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR REACHING THE MID 90S ALLOWING
RH VALUES TO SLIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTER
-NOON. BUT...HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THOUGH NOT TO BE REACHED.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

FLZ063-066>075-302300-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
402 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG INTERIOR AND EAST COAST TODAY...
...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND EAST COAST TODAY...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST COAST TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS: THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ALONG WITH THE
LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND SLOWLY BEFORE GETTING
PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

REMEMBER...IF YOU SEE ANY LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

BAXTER