Hail in Florida, March 22, 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MARINE SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE TODAY...

ONGOING CONVECTION N OF FCST AREA DVLOPING ALONG WRM FNT. SFC
FEATURE SHOULD LIFT FURTHER N AS UPSTREAM UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD.
SOME LOW CLDS AND LGT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE LACK THE HIGH
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT CUT THE HEATING YSTRDY. SO EXPECT MORE
DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO CONVECTION TODAY.

MORNING 12Z SNDGS ARE STARTING OUT VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000J WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL
HEATING. THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE AS ETA12 MDL
SNDGS SHOW A BIT OF WARMING OCCURRING IN THE COLUMN ALOFT. STILL
VERY RESPECTABLE WITH LOW 70S SFC DEW PTS AND -12 TO -13 AT H5.

IN ADDITION HEALTHY 40KT MID LVL WNDS AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION. ONLY LACKING FEATURE IS
A WELL DEFINED AND SINGLE LOW LVL FOCUS OR BNDRY. OLD PREXISTING
MESOSCALE BNDRYS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN LAKE INTERFACES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCUS HOWEVER. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW ABV SFC AND RELATIVELY
QUICK CU DVLPMENT SHOULD MITIGATE FULL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...ANY
BACKING WINDS IN COASTAL ZONE WILL ADD TO STORM ROTATION/SVR THREAT.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL REMAIN HAIL/STRONG WIND HOWEVER DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. WILL UPDATE HWO TO INC THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT FLOW
TIGHTENS INTO TONIGHT. WIND WAVES ON THE ORDER OF 3 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF
MARINE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
CONTAINING FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING MOVING OFFSHORE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

BLOTTMAN/JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
1002 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
230102-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1002 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. AS DAYTIME
HEATING CONTINUES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AND
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MEAN THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND OR CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WHILE A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE
ADDITIONAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY ANY BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO
MEAN THERE IS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR SATURATION.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.  STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL CREATE A DRIVING HAZARD...
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PUSH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
LAND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY.  THESE OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR MARINERS.  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
34 KNOTS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE ALSO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL ZONE WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH CAN PROMOTE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING PRECEDED
BY A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...LIGHTNING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BLOTTMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
834 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             8 NW FORT PIERCE        27.52N 80.41W
03/21/2005  2.00 INCH        ST. LUCIE          FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ST. LUCIE EM REPORTED HAIL DAMAGE IN SPANISH LAKES.
            WINDOWS OUT, SIDING OFF NEW MOBILE HOME, HOLES IN SIDING,
            REAR VIEW MIRRORS BROKEN

&&

FXD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
136 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

FLZ141-221900-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-
136 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL EXTREME NORTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 134 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES WEST
OF ORMOND BY THE SEA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STORM WILL
MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY NORTH OF ORMOND BEACH
TO ORMOND BY THE SEA AND THE FLAGLER COUNTY LINE. PERSONS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION TO AVOID THIS STORM.

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